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Abstract:In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN)-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer's electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN), a double seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of lithium-ion batteries can reduce the risk of battery failure by predicting the end of life. In this paper, we propose novel RUL prediction techniques based on long short-term memory (LSTM). To estimate RUL even in the presence of capacity regeneration phenomenon, we consider multiple measurable data from battery management system such as voltage, current and temperature charging profiles whose patterns vary as aging. Unlike the traditional LSTM prediction that matches input layer with output layer as one-to-one structure, we leverage many-to-one structure to be flexible for various input types and to substantially reduce the number of parameters for better generalization. Using the NASA lithium-ion battery datasets, we verify the accuracy of the proposed LSTM-based RUL prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed single-channel LSTM model improves the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) by 39.2% compared to the baseline LSTM model. Furthermore, the proposed multi-channel LSTM model significantly improves the MAPE, e.g., by 63.7% compared to the baseline; the proposed model achieves 0.47-1.88% of MAPE while the state-of-the-art baseline LSTM shows 0.6-6.45% of MAPE. INDEX TERMS Lithium-ion battery, long short-term memory, remaining useful life, capacity estimation.