Due to their potential application in earthquake forecasting, seismo-electromagnetic phenomena were intensively studied for several decades all over the world. At present, measurements from ground to space have accumulated a large amount of observation data, proving an excellent opportunity for seismo-electromagnetic study. Using a variety of analytical methods to examine past earthquake events, many electromagnetic changes associated with earthquakes have been independently reported, supporting the existence of pre-earthquake anomalies. This study aimed to give a brief review of the seismo-electromagnetic studies preceding earthquakes and to discuss possible ways for the application of seismo-electromagnetic signals at the current stage. In general, seismo-electromagnetic signals can be classified into electric and magnetic changes in the lithosphere and perturbations in the atmosphere. We start with seismo-electromagnetic research in the lithosphere, and then we review the studies in the lower atmosphere and upper atmosphere, including some latest topics that aroused intense scholarly interest. The potential mechanisms of seismo-electromagnetic phenomena are also discussed. It was found that although a number of statistical tests show that electromagnetic anomalies may contain predictive information for major earthquakes, with probability gains of approximately 2–6, it is still difficult to make use of seismo-electromagnetic signals efficiently in practice. To address this, finally, we put forward some preliminary ideas about how to apply the seismo-electromagnetic information in earthquake forecasting.
Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate–large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000–December 2004, January 2005–December 2009, January 2010–December 2014, and January 2015–December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space–time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate–large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.
In order to find out whether the geomagnetic storms and large-mega earthquakes are correlated or not, statistical studies based on Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA), significance analysis, and Z test have been applied to the Dst index data and M ≥ 7.0 global earthquakes during 1957–2020. The results indicate that before M ≥ 7.0 global earthquakes, there are clearly higher probabilities of geomagnetic storms than after them. Geomagnetic storms are more likely to be related with shallow earthquakes rather than deep ones. Further statistical investigations of the results based on cumulative storm hours show consistency with those based on storm days, suggesting that the high probability of geomagnetic storms prior to large-mega earthquakes is significant and robust. Some possible mechanisms such as a reverse piezoelectric effect and/or electroosmotic flow are discussed to explain the statistical correlation. The result might open new perspectives in the complex process of earthquakes and the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling.
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