C hina's entry into the World Trade Organization could have a decisive impact on that country's long-term development as well as on its relations with Asian neighbors and the United States.A best-case scenario posits a China confident of its role in the region, valuing stability and prosperity. A Chinese middle class could arise. Prospects would be good for mutually beneficial U.S.-China relations and for Chinese social and political reforms.Although a strong China could become a regional aggressor, that prospect is unlikely. It is also unrealistic to expect that China will not modernize its military and use it to enhance its international influence. A strong, stable China is likely to cooperate with Asian neighbors to maintain regional peace and stability.A worst-case scenario has Beijing failing at sustainable reform and finding itself hard-pressed to manage resulting economic and social ills and civil unrest. The leadership might encourage nationalism and military aggressiveness to ensure its survival. Internationally, China could become mired in a downward spiral of cheating, trade disputes, sanctions, and retaliation. U.S.-China relations overall would suffer, raising odds for conflict over sensitive issues such as Taiwan.China will show little change in the short run. Encouraging domestic reforms ultimately serves U.S. interests, but strong doses of realism, clarity, consistency, and patience will be required.

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China is committed to modernizing almost every aspect of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). But military modernization may be more of a high-stakes gamble than Beijing realizes. Politics and professionalism may not mix well.No matter how carefully crafted, modernization inevitably will alter the PLA sense of identity and change its relationship over time with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Modernization may foment friction between military and civilian authorities competing for political primacy and limited resources or create within the PLA divisive social issues similar to those dogging Chinese civil society generally.The CCP struggle to define its future in a changing society makes the problem more complex. The PLA could become a truly national army, unwilling to be a tool for enforcing party dicta or policing internal security. Or PLA factions could end up vying for power. The resulting instability, if not outright anarchy, could threaten all of Asia.The final nature of an empowered, modernized PLA is anyone's guess. In one worstcase scenario, the PLA is an aggressive, nationalistic entity fueled by radical Chinese militarism. In a positive scenario, a more professional PLA with enhanced capability and self-confidence might become a safer, less insular military that is cognizant of the need for disciplined action and measured responses, bound by well-understood rules of engagement and, overall, a more potent force for preserving regional stability.China's accelerated push to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) raises two important questions: What impact will such change have upon the PLA image, status, and role in Chinese society? And how will Chinese military modernization affect the strategic interests and security concerns of the United States and China's neighbors in the region?Making the PLA into a more professional, technologically proficient force would certainly strengthen its capability to perform national defense, regional security, and other externally oriented missions more effectively. But modernization could also significantly change internal PLA demographics, resulting in a drastic alteration of the social contract that has traditionally existed between China's military and civilian society.The aftereffects of major changes in the historic social contract remain a large and potentially dangerous unknown. Conceivably, substantive change could create conditions leading to political competition between civilian and military authorities or wrangling over limited resources. It might promote within the PLA itself a rise in divisive issues similar to those now plaguing Chinese society in general as a result of two decades of uneven economic reform: intensified urban-rural distinctions, rifts between haves and have-nots, and increasing divisions between the educated and uneducated, the privileged and unprivileged.For the PLA parent entity, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), modernization represents a double-edged sword. It promises the party a more effective mechanism for maintaining dom...