This paper studies whether peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms operate as substitutes to banks or instead complement them in consumer credit markets. I develop a framework and derive testable predictions to distinguish between the two cases. Using a regulatory change as an exogenous shock to bank credit supply, I find that P2P lending is a substitute to bank lending in that it serves infra-marginal bank borrowers, but also complements bank lending for small-size loans. These findings suggest that the credit expansion P2P lending brings about is likely to occur only among borrowers with access to bank credit.

Vegetation phenology has been used in studies as an indicator of an ecosystem's responses to climate change. Satellite remote sensing techniques can capture changes in vegetation greenness, which can be used to estimate vegetation phenology. In this study, a long-term vegetation phenology study of the Greater Khingan Mountain area in Northeastern China was performed by using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index version 3 (NDVI3g) dataset from the years 1982-2012. After reconstructing the NDVI time series, the start date of the growing season (SOS), the end date of the growing season (EOS) and the length of the growing season (LOS) were extracted using a dynamic threshold method. The response of the variation in phenology with climatic factors was also analyzed. The results showed that the phenology in the study area changed significantly in the three decades between 1982 and 2012, including a 12.1-day increase in the entire region's average LOS, a 3.3-day advance in the SOS and an 8.8-day delay in the EOS. However, differences existed between the steppe, forest and agricultural regions, with the LOSs of the steppe region, forest region and OPEN ACCESSRemote Sens. 2015, 7 11915 agricultural region increasing by 4.40 days, 10.42 days and 1.71 days, respectively, and a later EOS seemed to more strongly affect the extension of the growing season. Additionally, temperature and precipitation were closely correlated with the phenology variations. This study provides a useful understanding of the recent change in phenology and its variability in this high-latitude study area, and this study also details the responses of several ecosystems to climate change.

The Three-North Shelter Forest Program is the largest afforestation reconstruction project in the world. Remote sensing is a crucial tool to map land use and land cover change, but it is still challenging to accurately quantify the change in forest extent from time-series satellite images. In this paper, 30 Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ epochs from 1974 to 2012 were collected, and the high-quality ground surface reflectance (GSR) time-series images were processed by integrating the 6S atmosphere transfer model and a relative reflectance normalization algorithm. Subsequently, we developed a vegetation change tracking method to reconstruct the forest change history (afforestation and deforestation) from the time-series Landsat GSR images based on the integrated forest z-score (IFZ) model by Huang et al. (2009a), which was improved by multi-phenological IFZ models and the smoothing processing of IFZ data for afforestation mapping. The mapping result showed a large increase in the extent of forest, from 380,394 ha (14.8% of total district area) in 1974 to 1,128,380 ha (43.9%) in 2010. Finally, the land cover and forest change map was validated with an overall accuracy of 89.1% and a kappa coefficient of 0.858. The forest change time was also successfully retrieved, with 22.2% and 86.5% of the change pixels attributed to the correct epoch and within three epochs, respectively. The results confirmed a great achievement of the ecological revegetation projects in Yulin district over the last 40 years and also illustrated the potential of the time-series of Landsat images for detecting forest changes and estimating tree age for the artificial forest in a semi-arid zone strongly influenced by human activities.