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IntroductionThe UK social security system is being transformed by the implementation of Universal Credit (UC), which combines six existing benefits and tax credits into a single payment for low-income households. Despite extensive reports of hardship associated with the introduction of UC, no previous studies have comprehensively evaluated its impact on mental health. Because payments are targeted at low-income households, impacts on mental health will have important consequences for health inequalities.Methods and analysisWe will conduct a mixed methods study. Work package (WP) 1 will compare health outcomes for new recipients of UC with outcomes for legacy benefit recipients in two large population surveys, using the phased rollout of UC as a natural experiment. We will also analyse the relationship between the proportion of UC claimants in small areas and a composite measure of mental health. WP2 will use data collected by Citizen’s Advice to explore the sociodemographic and health characteristics of people who seek advice when claiming UC and identify features of the claim process that prompt advice-seeking. WP3 will conduct longitudinal in-depth interviews with up to 80 UC claimants in England and Scotland to explore reasons for claiming and experiences of the claim process. Up to 30 staff supporting claimants will also be interviewed. WP4 will use a dynamic microsimulation model to simulate the long-term health impacts of different implementation scenarios. WP5 will undertake cost–consequence analysis of the potential costs and outcomes of introducing UC and cost–benefit analyses of mitigating actions.Ethics and disseminationWe obtained ethical approval for the primary data gathering from the University of Glasgow, College of Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee, application number 400200244. We will use our networks to actively disseminate findings to UC claimants, the public, practitioners and policy-makers, using a range of methods and formats.Trial registration numberThe study is registered with the Research Registry: researchregistry6697.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK government introduced three waves of national lockdowns and other measures to limit the spread of the virus between 2020 and 2021. A key component of these national lockdowns required the out-of-home food sector, such as restaurants and pubs, to operate only as takeaways. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home food environment in England. Using monthly data collected at the local authority level between March 2019 to December 2021, we employed an interrupted time-series approach to analyze the trends of eight different types of food outlets: (1) fast food/sandwich shop; (2) pub/night club/bar; (3) restaurant/café/canteen; (4) supermarket; (5) mobile caterer; (6) other catering premise, (7) fast food chains, and (8) non-chained hot food outlets. Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic had heterogeneously impacted on different types of food outlets. After the easing of restrictions only restaurants, mobile caterers, pubs, and supermarkets grew, whereas fast food outlets and mobile caters did not. However, when looking at chained and non-chained fast food outlets, non-chained food outlets were more responsive to government policy during the pandemic such as the Eat Out To Help Out scheme, whereas after restrictions eased, chained outlets grew at a faster rate compared to their non-chained counterparts, but all fast food outlets had lower growth than before the pandemic. It is important to understand how the food environment is evolving and changing especially in relation to shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The food environment has a direct and indirect impact on the economy and population health. Thus, it is of great value to understand how it is changing and when and where there is a role for government intervention.

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This thesis investigates the price-setting behaviour of bookmakers in the online betting market. Specifically, I study betting price dispersion, frequency, and magnitude of price changes, as well as bookmaker overround by employing betting prices for the Eurovision Song Contest 2017. Previous studies suggest that online betting markets are nearly frictionless and efficient, which implies that betting price dispersion should be negligible or at least diminishing over time, since time reveals the fundamental value of each bet. However, our empirical evidence shows that the extent of betting price dispersion is large and persistent. Even after accounting for the heterogeneity of bookmakers, the price dispersion survives. Crucially, betting prices are considerably sticky. For instance, the average duration of price spells is about 1.5 hours during the grand-final live, where the length of the grand-final is only 3.75 hours. By incorporating more than 600,000 related tweets, I find that the number of tweets is strongly positively associated with the frequency and magnitude of betting price changes. This shows that changes in betting prices reflect the information flow. Yet, little is known about the betting market friction; thus, more studies are needed. Finally, this thesis empirically examines the dynamic of bookmaker overround, which is helpful in understanding betting price-setting behaviour at the bookmaker level. I report a significantly positive correlation between the size of the overround and the degree of information uncertainty. Moreover, bookmakers tend to reduce the overround in the later progress of the contest, even after controlling the changes in the number of surviving participating teams. This implies that, when the outcome is more produced, bookmakers will attempt to increase their sales by reducing the overround. Consistent with the findings in sport betting markets, our results show that bookmakers adjust prices in a defensive manner by manipulating the size of the premium charged on each bet. For instance, the bookmakers increase their overrounds while the lower-ranked team is catching up with the higher-ranked team. Overall, this thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of bookmaker pricing at the good level and bookmaker level, respectively.