Many plants rely on animal mutualists for reproduction. Quantifying how animal mutualists impact plant performance provides a foundation for modelling how change in animal communities affects the composition and functioning of plant communities. We performed a meta-analysis of 2539 experiments, 6 times more than the last comprehensive meta-analysis, examining how gut passage by frugivores influences seed germination. We simultaneously analyzed multiple predictor variables related to study methodology, location, and frugivore identity to disentangle methodological from ecological impacts on effect sizes. We found that gut passage by birds, fish, reptiles, bats, primates, and other mammals on average increased seed germination, but that the magnitude varied across vertebrate groups. The positive effects of gut passage were largely explained by the de-inhibitory effects of pulp removal rather than by the scarification of seed tissues. Some previous studies and meta-analyses that found no effect of gut passage only tested scarification or did not distinguish between these tests of scarification and pulp removal. We found that, for a typical fleshy-fruited plant species, the lack of gut passage reduces germination by 60%. From an evolutionary perspective, this indicates a large risk associated with reliance on animal mutualists that is balanced against the benefits of animal-mediated seed dispersal. From a conservation perspective, this highlights the potential for large demographic consequences of frugivore declines on plant populations. Our database and findings advance quantitative predictions for the role of fruit-frugivore interactions in shaping plant communities in the Anthropocene.

The spatially-explicit AgriculTural LandscApe Simulator (ATLAS) simulates realistic spatial-temporal crop availability at the landscape scale through crop rotations and crop phenology. Intended to be linked to organism population dynamics, the simulator is developed in a multi-agent platform. The model relies on initial GIS inputs for landscape composition and configuration. Users define typical rotations and crop phenology stages to be included, according to their objectives. In the study, we present two applications to contrasting landscapes, where ATLAS is capable of simulating accurate composition (crop area) and configuration (crop clustering) dynamics. ATLAS has potential applicability to a range of contrasting agricultural landscapes. The benefits of such a simulator are the possibility to study the effects of various simulated management scenarios of crop spatial-temporal availability in relation to target organisms and/or specific ecological processes (e.g. pest, biological control), within a single model framework.

Summary Assessing the impacts of invasive predators on the demography and distribution of native species is critical for understanding mechanisms of species persistence and informing the design of recovery programmes. On the oceanic island of Guam, the introduction of the predatory brown treesnake Boiga irregularis after World War II caused the near-total loss of the native forest avifauna. Localised snake control measures have been implemented since the early 1990s, yet it remains poorly understood how they have impacted Guam’s remaining native bird populations. To address this question, we combined intensive area searches of Andersen Air Force Base (AAFB) with island-wide transect surveys and opportunistic sightings to provide a comprehensive update on the distribution and abundance of Såli (Micronesian Starling, Aplonis opaca) – one of Guam’s last extant native bird species. Area searches of AAFB, where the largest remnant of the Såli population persists, revealed a 15-fold population increase since the last survey in the early 1990s, and transect surveys and opportunistic sightings indicate incipient recolonisation of other urbanised areas of northern and central Guam. We estimate the current island-wide population size at ~1,400 individuals. The population increase can likely be attributed to a combination of snake control measures and the Såli’s ability to exploit urban refugia for nesting and roosting. Although these trends demonstrate some population recovery, a skewed age ratio (>90% adults and subadults) at AAFB and a highly urbanised distribution and low abundance outside AAFB indicate that snake predation continues to strongly impact the population. More intensive snake suppression efforts, particularly in forested areas, may allow for the Såli population to attain its former distribution and abundance on Guam. More broadly, our findings reinforce the importance of urban areas as refugia for some threatened species.

Rewilding is an approach aiming at restoring ecosystems to a self-sustaining state by restoring ecological function through active reintroductions or passive management. Locations for most rewilding-through-reintroduction efforts today are selected based on the suitability of the habitat for the reintroduced species, often with little consideration of where the ecological function is most needed. We developed the Spatial Planning of Rewilding Effort (Spore) framework to identify priority locations for rewilding projects through simultaneous consideration of habitat suitability and provisioning of ecological function. We use the island of Guam as a case study for a potential rewilding project, as the island has functionally lost all native seed dispersers as a result of the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis). The Såli (Micronesian starling, Aplonis opaca) is a good candidate for rewilding to restore ecological function, because it is an effective seed disperser with a localized remnant population. Using Spore, we identify three priority areas for the restoration of seed dispersal, each subdivided into management units. By recognizing the influence of landscape structure and the behaviour of the reintroduced species on the spatial pattern of the function provided by that species, this approach should lead to improved ecological outcomes.royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rspb Proc. R. Soc. B 287: 20193017