The lower reaches of the Yellow River are China’s grain production base and ecological barrier. Its total grain production ranks third in China in 2021, and its cultivated land plays an extremely important role in ensuring food security in the Yellow River Basin and even the whole country. Based on the data of GlobeLand30 in 2000, 2010 and 2020, this study studied the spatial distribution of cultivated land use and the cultivated land transfer pattern, the spatial distribution concentration degree and directional distribution characteristics of cultivated land and grain production, and the sensitivity analysis of grain production to the change of cultivated land area in the lower reaches of the Yellow River by using the methods of land cover transfer matrix, spatial distribution concentration model, sensitivity analysis model, standard deviation ellipse model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results show that: 1) The land type with the largest area transferred from cultivated land in the lower Yellow River is artificial surface, and its regional distribution is scattered; At the same time, the land type with the largest area transferred into cultivated land is still artificial surface, which is directly related to the rural land remediation measures implemented by the government. 2) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution concentration index (HHI) grade of cultivated land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River was moderately concentrated and below, and there was no obvious concentration trend; the concentration degree of grain production distribution in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is higher than that of cultivated land, such as Rizhao, Dongying, Qingdao and Weihai, where the HHI grades of grain production are higher; The center of gravity of cultivated land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is relatively stable, while the center of gravity of grain production shows an obvious trend of “westward shift”. 3) During 2000–2010, the grain productions of 68.38% of districts and counties were insensitive to the change of cultivated land, while the grain productions of 18 districts and counties were highly sensitive to the change of cultivated land, mostly distributed in the hilly and mountainous areas of central and southern Shandong; During 2010–2020, the proportion of insensitive districts and counties decreased to 36%, and the middle and high sensitive areas obviously showed a gradual decreasing trend. Based on GlobeLand30 remote sensing image technology, this study can effectively reveal the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of cultivated land use and grain production in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and provide scientific reference for further rational development and utilization of cultivated land resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.

The period from 2010 to 2020 is a period of rapid economic development in China, with the increasing population and the urbanization level reaching 63.89%. Cultivated land plays an extremely important role in China’s food security. In order to grasp the spatial and temporal distribution and change of cultivated land use in China in time, based on GlobeLand30 data in 2010 and 2020, this study studied the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total cultivated land resources, cultivated land development and utilization degree, dynamic change degree of cultivated land utilization rate, and cultivated land use center and direction by using GIS technology, reclamation index, cultivated land utilization rate dynamic change degree model, cultivated land center shift model and standard deviation ellipse model. The results show that: ①The cultivated land area in China has changed greatly during 2010–2020, with the largest increase in cultivated land area in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, while the largest decrease in cultivated land area in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Guangdong, Henan and Zhejiang; ②The areas with the highest degree of cultivated land development and utilization are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui and other provinces in the east, while Qinghai, Tibet and Xinjiang have the lowest degree of cultivated land development and utilization; ③The regions with the highest dynamic change degree index of cultivated land utilization rate are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai, while the dynamic change degree index of cultivated land utilization rate in Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong shows obvious negative changes; ④The spatial and temporal migration of the center of gravity of cultivated land use in China shows the trend of “moving westward to northward”, and the spatial distribution direction of cultivated land use roughly presents the overall characteristics of northeast-southwest direction. This study can effectively reveal the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of cultivated land use at provincial level in China based on GlobeLand30, and provide a scientific reference for further rational development, utilization and protection of cultivated land resources in China.