Building a multimode transportation system could effectively reduce traffic congestion and improve travel quality. In many cities, use of public transport and green travel modes is encouraged in order to reduce the emission of greenhouse gas. With the development of the economy and society, travelers’ behaviors become complex. Analyzing the travel mode choices of urban residents is conducive to constructing an effective multimode transportation system. In this paper, we propose a statistical analysis framework to study travelers’ behavior with a large amount of survey data. Then, a stacking machine learning method considering travelers’ behavior is introduced. The results show that electric bikes play a dominant role in Jinan city and age is an important factor impacting travel mode choice. Travelers’ income could impact travel mode choice and rich people prefer to use private cars. Private cars and electric bikes are two main travel modes for commuting, accounting for 30% and 35%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed stacking method achieved 0.83 accuracy, outperforming the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) mode and nine other machine learning methods.
Travel time reliability plays a key role in bus scheduling and service quality. Owing to various stochastic factors, buses often suffer from traffic congestion, delay and bunching, which leads to disturbances of travel time. Automatic vehicle location (AVL) could record the spatiotemporal information of buses, making it possible to understand the status of bus service. In this paper, we specifically analyze the statistical characteristics of travel time based on historic AVL data. Moreover, a Kalman filter-LSTM deep learning is proposed to estimate bus travel time. Numerical tests indicate that the travel time of bus routes shows a left-skewed and right-tail pattern with a good fit of the lognormal distribution. The bus service reliability fluctuates largely in the peak hours, especially the morning peak. Bus bunching and large bus time headway easily occur, and once it occurs, it will continue until destination. The Kalman filter-LSTM model outperforms the ensemble learning methods to predict travel time. This study could provide implications for transit schedule optimization to improve the bus service quality.
Understanding equity and travelers’ behavior plays a key role in creating suitable strategies to promote the development of the expressway. Especially, finding clusters of expressway users could help managers provide targeted policies in order to enhance service quality. However, it is challenging to identify expressway travel behaviors, such as traffic flow distribution and users’ classification. Electronic toll collection (ETC) has been widely applied to improve expressway management, because it can record the origin–destination information of users. This paper proposes a framework to analyze the equity and travel behavior of expressway users with a large amount of ETC data. In the first stage, the Gini coefficient is adopted to analyze expressway equity. In the second stage, 12 kinds of indicators are extracted, including number of trips, car type, mean distance, etc. In the third stage, kmeans algorithm is adopted to cluster the users, based on the introduced indicators. Finally, we analyze the traffic flow distribution of each group by constructing a traffic flow network. The results show that the Gini coefficient is 0.4193, which demonstrates evident inequity in the expressway service. Moreover, statistical analysis shows that expressway flow is complicated and 70.77% of travelers do not make repeat trips. It is demonstrated that expressway users can be divided into six groups, and the flow networks of cluster 2 and cluster 3 are connected more closely and evenly than other clusters are.
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