River–lake interaction is important for maintaining biodiversity, yet it is vulnerable to hydrological alteration. The connectivity of the channel connecting Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River not only ensures the regular migration of fish but also makes Poyang Lake a feeding and fattening ground for them. Unfortunately, human activities have dramatically changed the hydrodynamic conditions of Poyang Lake, which is experiencing severe drought due to the obvious decline in the water level in autumn and winter, especially since 2003. However, the possible impacts of the changes in the water level on the habitats of migratory fish remain unclear due to the limitation of traditional techniques in spatiotemporal analysis. Here, we combined a hydrodynamic model and habitat suitability model to simulate variations in the suitable habitat area and their connectivity under different water-level conditions. The conditions for the migration pathway of the target fish were obtained by a hydroacoustic survey using the Simrad EY60 echosounder. The results showed that the change in water level will significantly affect the spatiotemporal change in the suitable habitats and their connectivity. In particular, we found the existence of two thresholds that play a dominant role in illuminating the connectivity of effective suitable habitats (HC). Firstly, the maximum value of the weighted usable area (WUA) and HC can be achieved when the water level is more than 16 m. Secondly, when the water level is between 10 and 16 m, the changes in the HC are sensitive and rapid, and the area flooded at this stage is called the sensitive area. HC is a crucial element in fish migration and habitat conditions. Under the condition of continuous drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, our research contributes to clarifying the influence of water level on key habitats for fish and optimizes the practice of river–lake ecological management.
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