The paper aims to measure stock price volatility on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HSX). We apply symmetric models (GARCH, GARCH-M) and asymmetry (EGARCH and TGARCH) to measure stock price volatility on HSX. We used time series data including the daily closed price of VN-Index during 1/03/2001-1/03/2019 with 4375 observations. The results show that GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models are the most suitable models to measure both symmetry and asymmetry volatility level of VN-Index. The study also provides evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects (leverage) through the parameters of TGARCH model (1,1), showing that positive shocks have a significant effect on the conditional variance (volatility). This result implies that the volatility of stock returns has a big impact on future market movements under the impact of shocks, while asymmetric volatility increase market risk, thus increase the attractiveness of the stock market. The research results are useful reference information to help investors in forecasting the expected profit rate of the HSX, and also the risks along with market fluctuations in order to take appropriate adjust to the portfolios. From this study's results, we can see risk prediction models such as GARCH can be better used in risk forecasting especially.
Our paper investigates the influence of state ownership on the linkage between revenue diversification and risk of Vietnam domestic commercial banks in the period 2009–2018. By using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation for a dynamic panel model, the empirical results indicate that Vietnamese domestic commercial banks with higher state equity are promoted to take more risks in the revenue diversification process. Our findings are robustly checked by a variety of measures of banking risk, income diversification, and state equity. Empirical results from our dynamic model are not only accordant with the previous findings of Batten and Vo [(2016). Bank risk shifting and diversification in an emerging market. Risk Management, 18(4), 217–235] estimated by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression on the positive relationship between banking risk and income diversification in Vietnamese domestic commercial banks but also provide new evidence on the tradeoff relationship between risk-return in the operating strategy of Vietnamese state-owned banks in the post-financial crisis. This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the nexus between revenue diversification and risk from the state ownership aspect in other frontier markets.
Our research investigates the connection between firm characteristics and leverage based on a sample of firms listed in the Chinese Stock Index 300. We aim to examine the sustainability of the financial structure of Chinese enterprises covering the period 2010–2019. We employ a conditional quantile regression that discloses the behavior of regressions across the leverage distribution and compares its results for different leverage levels with those achieved by the linear regression model. The results confirm the effects of the determinants of capital structure change since the quantile of leverage varies. We find that both the trade-off theory (TOT) and the pecking order theory (POT) confirm the validity of Chinese firms’ financing decisions at different quantiles of leverage. Specifically, the empirical results support the POT more over the TOT at higher levels of the quantile. Furthermore, the relationship between firm size and leverage strongly switches to support the POT at the highest quantile. All empirical results are obtained from quantile regression, consistent with the prediction for an increase in asymmetric information of the POT when Chinese firms employ more debt in their capital structure.
Our study investigates Chinese manufacturing firms listed on both the Shanghai and the Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. These firms follow the pecking order or trade-off theories in their capital structure choices. Using panel data from the Taiwan Economic Journal and quantile regression, we construct three models to compare the two theories. Our first model tests the impact of profitability, tangible asset, firm size, and investment opportunities on leverage; our second model adds the dividend payout ratio to test the robustness of the first model; and our third model tests how leverage, profitability, firm size, and dividend variables affect a firm’s investments. From the results of all the models used in our study, we find a negative relationship between leverage and both profitability and the dividend payout ratio and a positive relationship between leverage and growth in a firm’s investments. We also find a negative relationship between dividends, firm size, and growth in a firm’s investments and a positive relationship between investment capital and profitability. The overall results indicate that the capital structure decisions of Chinese manufacturing firms are best explained by the pecking order theory.
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