An increase in Arctic shallow landsliding is a potential consequence of climate warming. Warmer summer‐air temperatures and larger rainfall events drive heat into the active layer, melting ice and decreasing soil shear stress. Topography has the potential to exacerbate landsliding by controlling the distribution of ground ice and the movement of water in the subsurface. We demonstrate that shallow Arctic landslides initiate in zero‐order drainage basins consistent with models of shallow landsliding in non‐permafrost environments. However, the low average slopes and low concavity of Arctic hillslopes cannot create pore‐water pressures high enough to generate landsliding. Instead, two‐dimensional slope stability modeling suggests that the vertical distribution of ground‐ice distributions controls landslide susceptibility. High ground‐ice concentrations close to the potential failure plane act as a stronger control than high average ice volumes or rapid thawing. Our results demonstrate that landslide susceptibility is strongly affected by topographic controls on ground ice and hydrology.
Erosional and sediment fluxes from Arctic mountains are lower than for temperate mountain ranges due to the influence of permafrost on geomorphic processes. As permafrost extent declines in Arctic mountains, the spatial distribution of geomorphic processes and rates will change. Improved access to high‐quality remotely sensed topographic data in the Arctic provides an opportunity to develop our understanding of the spatial distribution of Arctic geomorphological processes and landforms. Utilizing newly available Arctic digital topography data, we have developed a method for geomorphic mapping using a pixel‐based linear discriminant analysis method that could be applied across Arctic mountains. We trained our classifier using landforms within the Adventdalen catchment in Svalbard and applied it to two adjacent catchments and one in Alaska. Slope gradient, elevation–relief ratio and landscape roughness distinguish landforms to a first order with >80% accuracy. Our simple classification system has a similar overall accuracy when compared across our field sites. The simplicity and robustness of our classification suggest that it is possible to use it to understand the distribution of Arctic mountain landforms using extant digital topography data and without specialized classifications. Our preliminary assessments of the distribution of geomorphic processes within these catchments demonstrate the importance of post‐glacial hillslope processes in governing sediment movement in Arctic mountains.
The Indian Ocean provides a source of salt for North Atlantic deep-water convection sites, via the Agulhas Leakage (AL), and may thus drive changes in the ocean's overturning circulation 6,7,8 . However, little is known about salt content variability of Indian Ocean and AL waters during past glacial cycles, and how this may influence circulation. Here we show that the glacial Indian Ocean surface salt budget was notably different from the modern, responding dynamically to changes in sea level.Indian Ocean surface salinity increases during glacial intensification peaking in glacial maxima. We find that this is due to rapid land exposure in the Indonesian archipelago induced by glacial sea level lowering, and we suggest a mechanistic link via reduced input of relatively fresh Indonesian throughflow (ITF) waters into the Indian Ocean.Using new climate model results, we show that the release of this glacial Indian Ocean salinity via the Agulhas Leakage during deglaciation can directly impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and global climate.
The Indian Ocean has been proposed as an important source of salt for North Atlantic deep-water convection sites, via the Agulhas Leakage, and may thus drive changes in the ocean’s overturning circulation. However, while past changes in Agulhas leakage volume have been explored, little is known about this water’s salt content, representing a major gap in our understanding of Agulhas salinity supply. Here, we present new planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) and stable isotope-derived salinity reconstructions for the last 1.2Ma from the western Indian Ocean source waters of the Agulhas Leakage to investigate glacial-interglacial changes in surface water properties. We find that SST and relative salinity both increase during glaciation, leading to high salinity and SST during glacial maxima. We show that the onset of surface salinification and warming in the Indian Ocean occurs during a phase of rapid land-bridge exposure in the Indonesian archipelago induced by sea level lowering. We link these findings to new global climate model results which show that the export of salt from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas Leakage can directly impact the deglacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and therefore global climate.
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