The paper contains the results of econometric calculations performed with a view to investigate the main factors determining inflation in Russia in the 1994-2006 period. The processes of formation of inflation in Russia at the stages of economic crisis and economic growth are analyzed based on quarterly data.
<p align="justify">В статье проводится анализ динамики инфляции и влиявших на нее факторов в России в 2006-2016 гг. На основе поквартальных данных приведены результаты эконометрического анализа факторов, определявших инфляцию в России в период 2000-2016 гг.
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The paper reviews the effect of nonmonetary factors on inflation dynamics in Russia from 2000 to 2018. The period under review was divided into two intervals with different economic dynamics: 2000–2008 – the period of economic growth in Russia, 2009–2018 – the period of a slower rate of economic growth. Both periods were analyzed for various nonmonetary factors having an impact on inflation, which helped reveal common as well as distinctive features of nonmonetary factors. Some factors, such as the growth rate of agricultural prices had a significant impact on the consumer price inflation dynamics over the whole period under research. Other nonmonetary factors ceased to have an effect on consumer prices making room for others. Thus, the volume of imports turned out to be significant only in the period from 2009 to 2018, which is explained by the geopolitical situation and introduced economic sanctions. The conducted research confirmed a growing role of nonmonetary factors in the inflation processes. This conclusion requires consideration of specific features of nonmonetary causes of inflation on behalf of the Central bank and the fiscal organs in development of concrete steps to reduce inflation. The priority should continue to be given to effective tariff regulation, modernization of industry and promotion of competition.
The paper reviews techniques for measuring inflation expectations in Russia in the period from 2015 to 2020. In the tree methods under review, which comprise adaptive expectations, stock exchange indicators, and sociological surveys of the Bank of Russia, the authors found both common and distinguishing features. All the reviewed methods demonstrated that inflation expectations remain high in Russia despite the relatively stable rates of the last few years on the level of 4–5 %. When estimated by the adaptive method in 2015–2020, the inflation expectations stayed between 0.5 and 6.2 %. The adaptive expectations allow a simplified approach to estimation as they depend on the level of the previous period’s inflation and do not react to economic shocks in the short term. The method of stock exchange indicators estimated the inflation expectations dynamics from 2.5 up to 8.6 %. Thanks to the opportunity of daily monitoring inflation expectations, this method is better at analyzing factors that impact the sentiments of market agents. A comparative analysis of approaches to estimating inflation expectations revealed that expectations according to sociological surveys of the Bank of Russia happened to surpass the actual inflation. In the period 2015–2020 the level of inflation expectations varied between 8 and 17 %, which is much higher than Russia’s inflation level.l.
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