No abstract

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of morbidity in children worldwide, although data from equatorial regions are limited. We analysed climatic, spatial, and temporal data for children presenting to hospitals in Lombok island, Indonesia with clinical pneumonia. During the study period, 2878 children presented and 741 RSV cases were identified. In multivariate analysis with an 8-day lag, occurrence of rain was associated with 64% higher incidence of RSV disease [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.38]. A 1% rise in mean relative humidity and 1 degree C increase in mean air temperature was associated with a 6% (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.10) and 44% (IRR 1.44, 95% CI 1.24-1.66) increase in RSV cases, respectively. Four statistically significant local clusters of RSV pneumonia were identified within the annual island-wide epidemics. This study demonstrates statistical association of monsoon-associated weather in equatorial Indonesia with RSV. Moreover, within the island-wide epidemics, localized RSV outbreaks suggest local factors influence RSV disease.

Few large studies have evaluated risk factors for mortality among children hospitalized for pneumonia and this may contribute to suboptimal case management efficiency. To identify useful screening criteria for mortality among children hospitalized for pneumonia in a developing country setting, we conducted a population-based hospital cohort study among children less than 2 years of age admitted for pneumonia during 1999-2001 at one of three major hospitals on Lombok Island, Indonesia. Of 4351 children admitted for pneumonia, 12 per cent died before discharge. Case fatality proportions were seasonal, with peaks occurring immediately after peaks in the proportion of cases positive for respiratory syncytial virus. Children with an oxygen saturation < or = 85 per cent or age younger than 4 months were 5.6 times more likely to die than children with none of these predictive factors (95 per cent CI, 4.5-7.1); 83 per cent of children who died had one of these two risk factors. For children < 4 months old, mortality increased at an oxygen saturation < 88 per cent compared with < 80 per cent for older children. Laboratory, physical examination, and radiological findings were not associated with or did not contribute substantially to mortality prediction. Among children hospitalized for pneumonia, age less than 4 months and hypoxia were identified with those at high risk of death. Age influences cut-off levels for hypoxia.

Lombok has a large burden of severe childhood RSV lower respiratory illness, and death occurs frequently. Novel RSV vaccines thus could have a substantial positive impact on lower respiratory illness morbidity and mortality.

Lombok has a large burden of severe childhood RSV lower respiratory illness, and death occurs frequently. Novel RSV vaccines thus could have a substantial positive impact on lower respiratory illness morbidity and mortality.