This paper presents a modelling study on the forest dynamics in Helgedomen Nature Reserve (HNR) in Sweden. The main components of the forest transitions that occurred between 1930 and 2010 were described. The gradual conversion of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominated stands into stands with a high proportion of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) was observed. Next, the capabilities of the modelling system (FORKOME) in predicting the future development of forests in the reserve were tested. The model was validated by simulating forest development from 1930 to 2010, and then it was applied to project the future development of forests in the reserve. Scenarios generated in the forecasting component of the model were (1) no intervention, (2) removal of spruce, and (3) prescribed burning. The FORKOME model was able to predict possible alterations of species composition, stem volume, total biomass in the next 100 years under these three scenarios. We argue that in the absence of natural fires, the active management of small reserves is required in order to maintain the major natural values. Prescribed burning is more effective than spruce removal for maintaining the pine-dominated character of the stands and to sustain the conservation value of the reserve.

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This paper presents the results of investigations on natural forest regeneration in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) monocultures in the Ukrainian Beskids with the use of FORKOME model prognostic possibilities. Different variants of regeneration methods are presented. Selective cutting with planting was determined as the most effective: spruce selective cutting with simultaneous planting of target species: beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and fir (Abies alba Mill.) with admixture of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.). Beech and fir biomass increases rapidly over the first 20 years -then it stabilizes. After another 20-30 years the initial form of beech forest is recognizable and it is possible to speak about an increase of beech forest, which in the course of time achieves a higher degree of similarity to natural stand. In the Ukrainian Beskids the potential forest stand consists of beech and fir (Dentario glandulosae-Fagetum).

Kozak I., Perzanowski K., Kucharzyk s., Przybylska K., zięba s., Frąk r., Bujoczek l.: Perspectives for the application of computer models in forest dynamics forecasting in Bieszczadzki national Park (Poland). Ekológia (Bratislava), vol. 33, no. 1, p. 16-25, 2014. This paper presents the perspectives for application of computer models in forecasting the dynamics of forest development on example of moczarne area, in Bieszczadzki national Park, based on authors' computer models. First, the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development in a local scale, i.e. within single rectangular or circular study plot, are presented. For this purpose, a computer prognostic model ForKomE has been applied, using both general mathematical relationships functioning within a forest ecosystem and empirical ones, characteristic for tree stands at analysed plots. additionally, a layer of 3d visualisation of a tree stand, which is an integral part of the mentioned model, is also presented. Presented also are the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development at landscape scale, applying the theory of cellular automata. For this purpose, a prognostic computer model cEllaut was used in which the whole analysed tree stand is understood as a set of single cells, where stages of landscape development dominating within those cells are considered as also the influence of particular cells upon their neighbours. The paper also describes the perspectives for application of self-learning neural networks in the process of supplementation and verification of some parameters of a tree stand, calculated by the above-mentioned models.

The article reveals the features of the balanced development of the United Territorial Communities (UTCs) in Ukraine which aims to create the preconditions for their stable growth and improvement of the quality of life in the countryside. The assessment of the role and of the level of satisfaction of the community from the operation of agricultural enterprises (AEs) in the united territorial communities is carried out. The results of the study have a theoretical and practical significance, especially in the context of non-endogenous development of rural areas, and may also serve as a tool for identifying the best economic solutions for the development of agricultural enterprises that function in UTCs.