Practitioners of many skills face the need to make some realistic statement about the likely outcome of a future 'experiment of interest' on the basis of observed variability of outcomes in previously conducted related experiments. In this book the authors provide the predictor with the data and formulae which will assist in accurate forecasting, and suggest that an effective answer is to be found in the concept of predictive distribution within the framework of statistical prediction analysis. An applied mathematical approach is adopted throughout and the book is aimed at readers with some statistical knowledge, final year undergraduates, numerate scientists, technologists and medical workers interested in predictive techniques.

Patients with lichen sclerosus and atrophicus have an increased incidence of organ specific antibodies, and these patients and their relatives have a significantly higher incidence of associated autoimmune diseases than a control population. The incidence of other auto-immune diseases in patients with lichen sclerosus is highest when the onset is between the ages of 41 and 60 years, but is not related to the duration or site of the lesions. These findings suggest an immunological basis for the disease and indicate that the patients should be investigated and followed up to detect the existence of other auto-immune disorders.

SummaryThe occurrence of future record values based on data from a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables is considered. Two situations are analysed, namely (i) where only the first m record observations have been noted, and (ii) where all the observations have been noted up to the ruth record. Tolerance regions and Bayesian predictive distributions are derived for the increase in size of the (m-}-r)th record value over the observed ruth record value for two exponential models. Predictive distributions are also given for the additional number of observations required after the ruth record value until the (m+l)th record value occurs.

Patients with localized morphoea have an increased incidence of auto-immune disorders, but this is not related to the age of onset, duration of disease nor the site or number of lesions. The patients have an increased incidence of tissue antibodies and these are more common when more than one lesion is present. The relatives of the patients have also been found to have an increased incidence of auto-immune disorders. These findings suggest an immunological basis for the disease and indicate that the patients should be investigated and followed up to detect the evidence of other auto-immune disorders.