Considerable progress has been made in identifying the molecular composition of complex signaling networks controlling cell proliferation, differentiation, and survival. However, to discover general building principles and predict the dynamic behavior of signaling networks, it is necessary to develop quantitative models based on experimental observations. Here we report a mathematical model of the core module of the Janus family of kinases (JAK)-signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) signaling pathway based on time-resolved measurements of receptor and STAT5 phosphorylation. Applying the fitted model, we can determine the quantitative behavior of STAT5 populations not accessible to experimental measurement. By in silico investigations, we identify the parameters of nuclear shuttling as the most sensitive to perturbations and verify experimentally the model prediction that inhibition of nuclear export results in a reduced transcriptional yield. The model reveals that STAT5 undergoes rapid nucleocytoplasmic cycles, continuously coupling receptor activation and target gene transcription, thereby forming a remote sensor between nucleus and receptor. Thus, dynamic modeling of signaling pathways can promote functional understanding at the systems level.

During the past decades the components involved in cellular signal transduction from membrane receptors to gene activation in the nucleus have been studied in detail. Based on the qualitative biochemical knowledge, signalling pathways are drawn as static graphical schemes. However, the dynamics and control of information processing through signalling cascades is not understood. Here we show that based on time resolved measurements it is possible to quantitatively model the nonlinear dynamics of signal transduction. To select an appropriate model we performed parameter estimation by maximum likelihood and statistical testing. We apply this approach to the JAK-STAT signalling pathway that was believed to represent a feed-forward cascade. We show by comparison of different models that this hypothesis is insufficient to explain the experimental data and suggest a new model including a delayed feedback.

Cellular signalling pathways, mediating receptor activity to nuclear gene activation, are generally regarded as feed forward cascades. We analyse measured data of a partially observed signalling pathway and address the question of possible feed-back cycling of involved biochemical components between the nucleus and cytoplasm. First we address the question of cycling in general, starting from basic assumptions about the system. We reformulate the problem as a statistical test leading to likelihood ratio tests under non-standard conditions. We find that the modelling approach without cycling is rejected. Afterwards, to differentiate two different transport mechanisms within the nucleus, we derive the appropriate dynamical models which lead to two systems of ordinary differential equations. To compare both models we apply a statistical testing procedure that is based on bootstrap distributions. We find that one of both transport mechanisms leads to a dynamical model which is rejected whereas the other model is satisfactory. Copyright 2004 Royal Statistical Society.