Background-Many studies of the consequences of binge drinking take a variable-centered approach that may mask developmentally different trajectories. Recent studies have reported qualitatively different binge drinking trajectories in young adulthood. However, analyses of developmental trajectories of binge drinking have not been examined for an important period of drinking development: adolescence. The purpose of this study was to examine young adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking using an approach that combines person-centered and variable-centered methods.

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Previous research has shown heterogeneity in offense trajectories. Using data from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal study of 808 youths followed since 1985, this study seeks to identify childhood predictors of different offense trajectories. Five offense trajectories were identified using semiparametric, group-based modeling: nonoffenders, late onsetters, desisters, escalators, and chronic offenders. Multinomial logistic regressions were then employed to examine childhood predictors measured at ages 10 to 12 that distinguish these five groups. Results indicated that among initial nonoffenders at age 13, late onsetters were distinguished from nonoffenders by individual factors. Among youth already delinquent at age 13, escalators were distinguished from desisters by peer, school, and neighborhood factors.

In this study, we examined the violent death bereavement trajectories of 173 parents by following them prospectively for 5 years after their children's deaths by accident, suicide, homicide, or undetermined causes. Using latent growth curve methodology, we examined how the initial level of PTSD and the rate of change over time were influenced by 9 predictors: the deceased children's causes of death, parents' gender, self-esteem, 3 coping strategies, perceived social support, concurrent levels of mental distress, and an intervention offered in early bereavement. Six of the nine factors predicted initial levels of PTSD; however, only parents' gender and perceived social support predicted change in PTSD over the 5-year time frame. Five years postdeath, 3 times as many study mothers (27.7%) met diagnostic criteria for PTSD and twice as many study fathers (12.5%) met diagnostic criteria for PTSD compared with the normative samples.

This integrated person- and variable-centered approach provides more information about the effects of specific patterns of binge drinking than studies that employ variable-centered methods alone.