Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mali. Between 2017 and 2020, the number of cases increased in the country, with 2,884,827 confirmed cases and 1454 reported deaths in 2020. We performed a malaria risk stratification at the health district level in Mali with a view to proposing targeted control interventions. Data on confirmed malaria cases were obtained from the District Health Information Software 2, data on malaria prevalence and mortality in children aged 6–59 months from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey, entomological data from Malian research institutions working on malaria in the sentinel sites of the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), and environmental data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. A stratification of malaria risk was performed. Targeted malaria control interventions were selected based on spatial heterogeneity of malaria incidence, malaria prevalence in children, vector resistance distribution, health facility usage, child mortality, and seasonality of transmission. These interventions were discussed with the NMCP and the different funding partners. In 2017–2019, median incidence across the 75 health districts was 129.34 cases per 1000 person-years (standard deviation = 86.48). Risk stratification identified 12 health districts in very low transmission areas, 19 in low transmission areas, 20 in moderate transmission areas, and 24 in high transmission areas. Low health facility usage and increased vector resistance were observed in high transmission areas. Eight intervention combinations were selected for implementation. Our work provides an updated risk stratification using advanced statistical methods to inform the targeting of malaria control interventions in Mali. This stratification can serve as a template for continuous malaria risk stratifications in Mali and other countries.

Background The National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of Mali has had recent success decreasing malaria transmission using 3rd generation indoor residual spraying (IRS) products in areas with pyrethroid resistance, primarily in Ségou and Koulikoro Regions. In 2015, national survey data showed that Mopti Region had the highest under 5-year-old (u5) malaria prevalence at 54%—nearly twice the national average—despite having high access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Accordingly, in 2016 the NMCP and other stakeholders shifted IRS activities from Ségou to Mopti. Here, the results of a series of observational analyses utilizing routine malaria indicators to evaluate the impact of this switch are presented. Methods A set of retrospective, eco-observational time-series analyses were performed using monthly incidence rates of rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed malaria cases reported in the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) from January 2016 until February 2018. Comparisons of case incidence rates were made between health facility catchments from the same region that differed in IRS status (IRS vs. no-IRS) to describe the general impact of the 2016 and 2017 IRS campaigns, and a difference-in-differences approach comparing changes in incidence from year-to-year was used to describe the effect of suspending IRS operations in Ségou and introducing IRS operations in Mopti in 2017. Results Compared to communities with no IRS, cumulative case incidence rates in IRS communities were reduced 16% in Ségou Region during the 6 months following the 2016 campaign and 31% in Mopti Region during the 6 months following the 2017 campaign, likely averting a total of more than 22,000 cases of malaria that otherwise would have been expected during peak transmission months. Across all comparator health facilities (HFs) where there was no IRS in either year, peak malaria case incidence rates fell by an average of 22% (CI95 18–30%) from 2016 to 2017. At HFs in communities of Mopti where IRS was introduced in 2017, peak incidence fell by an average of 42% (CI95 31–63%) between these years, a significantly greater decrease (p = 0.040) almost double what was seen in the comparator HFCAs. The opposite effect was observed in Ségou Region, where peak incidence at those HFs where IRS was withdrawn after the 2016 campaign increased by an average of 106% (CI95 63–150%) from year to year, also a significant difference-in-differences compared to the comparator no-IRS HFs (p < 0.0001). Conclusion Annual IRS campaigns continue to make dramatic contributions to the seasonal reduction of malaria transmission in communities across central Mali, where IRS campaigns were timed in advance of peak seasonal transmission and utilized a micro-encapsulated product with an active ingredient that was of a different class than the one found on the LLINs used throughout the region and to which local malaria vectors were shown to be susceptible. Strategies to help mitigate the resurgence of malaria cases that can be expected should be prioritized whenever the suspension of IRS activities in a particular region is considered.

Background: Ségou Region in central Mali is an area of high malaria burden with seasonal transmission. The region reports high access to and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), though the principal vector, Anopheles gambiae, is resistant to pyrethroids. From 2011 until 2016, several high-burden districts of Ségou also received indoor residual spraying (IRS), though in 2014 concerns about pyrethroid resistance prompted a shift in IRS products to a micro-encapsulated formulation of the organophosphate insecticide pirimiphos-methyl. Also in 2014, the region expanded a pilot programme to provide seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to children aged 3-59 months in two districts. The timing of these decisions presented an opportunity to estimate the impact of both interventions, deployed individually and in combination, using quality-assured passive surveillance data. Methods: A non-randomized, quasi-experimental time series approach was used to analyse monthly trends in malaria case incidence at the district level. Districts were stratified by intervention status: an SMC district, an IRS district, an IRS + SMC district, and control districts that received neither IRS nor SMC in 2014. The numbers of positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT +) results reported at community health facilities were aggregated and epidemiological curves showing the incidence of RDT-confirmed malaria cases per 10,000 person-months were plotted for the total all-ages and for the under 5 year old (u5) population. The cumulative incidence of RDT + malaria cases observed from September 2014 to February 2015 was calculated in each intervention district and compared to the cumulative incidence reported from the same period in the control districts. Results: Cumulative peak-transmission all-ages incidence was lower in each of the intervention districts compared to the control districts: 16% lower in the SMC district; 28% lower in the IRS district; and 39% lower in the IRS + SMC district. The same trends were observed in the u5 population: incidence was 15% lower with SMC, 48% lower with IRS, and 53% lower with IRS + SMC. The SMC-only intervention had a more moderate effect on incidence reduction initially, which increased over time. The IRS-only intervention had a rapid, comparatively large impact initially that waned over time. The impact of the combined interventions was both rapid and longer lasting.

ABSTRACT. This article highlights over a decade of signature achievements by the West Africa International Centers for Excellence in Malaria Research (WA-ICEMR) and its partners toward guiding malaria prevention and control strategies. Since 2010, the WA-ICEMR has performed longitudinal studies to monitor and assess malaria control interventions with respect to space-time patterns, vector transmission indicators, and drug resistance markers. These activities were facilitated and supported by the Mali National Malaria Control Program. Research activities included large-scale active and passive surveillance and expanded coverage of universal long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). The findings revealed substantial declines in malaria occurrence after the scale-up of control interventions in WA-ICEMR study sites. WA-ICEMR studies showed that SMC using sulfadoxine‐pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine was highly effective in preventing malaria among children under 5 years of age. An alternative SMC regimen (dihydroartemisinin plus piperaquine) was shown to be potentially more effective and provided advantages for acceptability and compliance over the standard SMC regimen. Other findings discussed in this article include higher observed multiplicity of infection rates for malaria in historically high-endemic areas, continued antimalarial drug sensitivity to Plasmodium falciparum, high outdoor malaria transmission rates, and increased insecticide resistance over the past decade. The progress achieved by the WA-ICEMR and its partners highlights the critical need for maintaining current malaria control interventions while developing novel strategies to disrupt malaria transmission. Enhanced evaluation of these strategies through research partnerships is particularly needed in the wake of reported artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia and East Africa.

No abstract