Dynamics of production efficiency is a key factor in assessing resource-use patterns and production growth. Raising technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in rural areas would not only increase their income but also stimulate the rest of the economy. This study therefore assessed movement of smallholder farmers in and out of technical efficiency regime over time in Nigeria. Panel data from Living Standard Measurement Survey was analysed using stochastic production frontier model, Markov chain and multinomial logit model. Farm size, labour, cassava cuttings and the use of pesticides, significantly influenced the productivity of cassava production while age squared, household size, no access to extension services and membership of a cooperative society reduced the efficiency of the farming households. A higher percentage (64.83%) of cassava farms under mono-cropping system were efficient in 2010/2011, while a large proportion of about 92.91% were inefficient in 2015/2016. Further, the rate of entry into technical inefficiency (31.32%) was more than the rate of exit from technical inefficiency (14.89%). Transition into technical inefficiency was explained by age, age squared, farm size, gender, household size, marital status, secondary school education and farming systems. In the long run, the probability that rural cassava farmers will be technically efficient was higher than that of being technically inefficient in the future.

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