Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the discretionary use of loan loss provisions in the Chinese banking sector during the global financial crisis. The objective of this paper is twofold: to add new evidence to the scant literature dealing with a peculiar banking sector, such as the Chinese one, and to shed more light on banks’ provisioning behaviour during stressed financial markets conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
– Using bank-level balance sheet and financial statements data, the authors test for income smoothing and capital management hypotheses, and detect differences in provisioning decisions of listed banks and unlisted financial intermediaries during turbulent financial markets conditions.
Findings
– The authors find support for the income smoothing hypothesis, but not for the capital management one. Chinese listed banks appear to be less risky and less involved in income smoothing to shift their risk, when compared to unlisted credit institutions.
Social implications
– The results obtained from this paper help to understand the functioning of bank provisioning regime in the Chinese banking system and how provisioning mechanisms can address the issues associated with the pro-cyclicality of bank capital requirements.
Originality/value
– Though referred to a particular banking sector, such as the Chinese one, the results of this paper can provide a tremendous incentive to those national and international authorities that are bound to promote forward-looking provisioning practices. These practices would allow banks to build a buffer of reserves to face the downward pressure on earnings and capital associated with periods of worsening credit quality.
This paper contributes to prior literature and to the current debate concerning recent revisions of theregulatory approach to measuring bank exposure to interest rate risk in the banking book by focusingon assessment of the appropriate amount of capital banks should set aside against this specific risk. Wefirst discuss how banks might develop internal measurement systems to model changes in interest ratesand measure their exposure to interest rate risk that are more refined and effective than are regulatorymethodologies. We then develop a backtesting framework to test the consistency of methodology resultswith actual bank risk exposure. Using a representative sample of Italian banks between 2006 and 2013,our empirical analysis supports the need to improve the standardized shock currently enforced by theBasel Committee on Banking Supervision. It also provides useful insights for properly measuring theamount of capital to cover interest rate risk that is sufficient to ensure both financial system functioningand banking stability
Monetary policies, either actual or perceived, cause changes in monetary interest rates. These changes impact the economy through financial institutions, which react to changes in the monetary rates with changes in their administered rates, on both deposits and lendings. The dynamics of administered bank interest rates in response to changes in money market rates is essential to examine the impact of monetary policies on the economy. Chong et al. (2006) proposed an error correction model to study such impact, using data previous to the recent financial crisis. In this paper we examine the validity of the model in the recent time period, characterized by very low monetary rates. The current state of close-to-zero monetary rates is of particular relevance, as it has never been studied before. Our main contribution is a novel, more parsimonious, model and a predictive performance assessment methodology, which allows comparing it with the error correction model.
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