The paper looks into the issues of evaluation and forecast of illicit capital flows. Theoretical statements are analyzed to confirm or reject the reasonability of rigid foreign exchange controls and regulation. A multi-factor linear regression model has been built on the assumption that the volume of illicit capital export depends on the volume of its trans-border flow, which is reflected in the items of the balance of payments of Russia. The model helps to forecast the illicit capital export for the period not yet covered in the public sources of information. Conclusions are made concerning the areas of foreign exchange control which is an important issue for today.