Demographic bonus is a phenomenon that occurs in every developing country including Indonesia. In Indonesia this phenomenon could be backfire if thegovernment can not exploit this phenomenon with the right policy. The United Nations states that demographic bonuses in Indonesia will peak in the period of 2020-2030. This paper shows the effect of demographic bonus on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) by using panel data. The regency/municipality being the sample in this research is Surabaya. Banyuwangi, Tuban, Probolinggo, Blitar, Lamongan with vulnerable time from 2010-2015. The method used in this research is by using Panel Error Correction (PEC), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results of this study indicate that in the short and long run demographic bonus have a significant effect on East Java GRDP. Furthemore, the policy on demographic bonus is not optimal in supporting the increase of East Java GRDP. Finally, calculations using ARIMA indicate a decrease in GRDP in the next few years.

Globalization makes all the economic activities of the country becomes more open. Trade openness leads to increasingly fierce competition conditions and then raises a competitiveness. This competitiveness is the key for each country to develop products to be exported. Competitiveness is one of the criteria that determine the success of a country in international trade. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of changes in comparative advantages occurring in ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand) in 1989 to 2016 using Product Mapping method which combines calculations between RSCA and TBI in each product classification. The results show that each country has different comparative advantages, including Indonesia which has a comparative advantage for unskilled-labor product classification (TPT and garment) and on primary product (oil and its derivative products) and is the leader for both products. Then the Philippines has a comparative advantage for the classification of technology intensive products (electronics) which is also a leader in the product. In addition, the results of research also found a change in comparative advantage as well as product specialization, including Thailand which no longer has a comparative advantage on human-capital intensive products (rubber and derivative products) but still a net-exporter. So it is with Indonesia who no longer has a comparative advantage on natural-resource products (lead) but still a net-exporter.