How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

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Profound socio-economic disparities that exist among American religious groups are largely driven by the quantity and quality of education they receive. Furthermore, given the U.S. schooling system is rooted in Protestant ideals, it is possible that students with Protestant commitments have an academic advantage. This article synthesizes literature on how adolescents’ religious commitment and background are associated with their short- and long-term academic outcomes. A literature search identified 42 relevant studies published in 1990-present. These studies were reviewed to identify: (1) the mechanisms through which religion affects educational outcomes—moral, social, and cultural; (2) the main operationalized measures of religion— religious tradition and individual religiosity; and (3) the most frequent academic outcomes studied—secondary school grades, truancy, test scores, educational aspirations, and educational attainment. Of the 42 studies, 95% were based exclusively on quantitative survey data, 95% examined only religiosity or religious tradition, and 66% focused on educational attainment. There were three major findings. First, research has advanced from correlational studies to methodologically rigorous designs suggesting religion can play a causal role in academic success. Second, research reveals a religiosity-religious tradition paradox: Adolescents with stronger religiosity earn better grades, are less truant in secondary school, and complete more years of higher education. A large proportion of highly religious adolescents are likely to be conservative Protestants, but the research on religious tradition suggests that conservative Protestants are among the least educated religious groups. Third, it is unclear if religious adolescents only fare better on academic outcomes that reward their personality, such as grades, or whether they also perform better on more objective measures, such as standardized tests. This systematic review reveals a paradoxical “effect” of academic achievement and religiosity versus-religious tradition. The overall results indicate the need to: (a) identify the interaction between religious tradition and religiosity, (b) distinguish between subjective versus objective academic outcomes; (c) examine heterogeneity among non-religious adolescents; (d) study the interplay between institutional schooling and institutional religion; (e) investigate the religion/cultural match between teachers and students; (f) pursue qualitative research to better understand mechanisms; and (g) expand research about non-Christians.

This article reviews the conceptual frameworks that have underscored the social scientific study of Jewish identity and experiments with a methodological and analytical approach that aims to respond to contemporary social trends. Beginning with a historical account of the concept's emergence in the study of American Jews, we consider the ways in which scholars and their research subjects have co-constructed the concept of Jewish identity. Based on our analysis of qualitative interviews with fifty-eight post-boomer American Jews, we propose that Jewish identity be understood primarily as a relational phenomenon that is constructed through social ties, rather than as a product of individual meaning-making or assessments of social impact. We set our exploratory findings in conversation with some of the most influential and widely cited qualitative studies of Jewish identity in the past to examine the implications of that conceptual shift for scholars and scholarship on Jewish identity in the 21st century.He was the kind of guy who was always telling you what kind of guy he was.

This study considers the role of religious habitus and self-concept in educational stratification. We follow 3,238 adolescents for 13 years by linking the National Study of Youth and Religion to the National Student Clearinghouse. Survey data reveal that girls with a Jewish upbringing have two distinct postsecondary patterns compared to girls with a non-Jewish upbringing, even after controlling for social origins: (1) they are 23 percentage points more likely to graduate college, and (2) they graduate from much more selective colleges. We then analyze 107 interviews with 33 girls from comparable social origins interviewed repeatedly between adolescence and emerging adulthood. Girls raised by Jewish parents articulate a self-concept marked by ambitious career goals and an eagerness to have new experiences. For these girls, elite higher education and graduate school are central to attaining self-concept congruence. In contrast, girls raised by non-Jewish parents tend to prioritize motherhood and have humbler employment aims. For them, graduating from college, regardless of its prestige, is sufficient for self-concept congruence. We conclude that religious subculture is a key factor in educational stratification, and divergent paths to self-concept congruence can help explain why educational outcomes vary by religion in gendered ways.