Abstract. The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting methane lifetime (τCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of τCH4 differences among 10 models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D), the mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapour, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in τCH4, while isoprene, methane, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead ozone column, and temperature account for little to no model variation in τCH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in τCH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in τCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapour on OH and τCH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5 % decade−1, respectively. The responses due to NOx, ozone column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies.
Abstract. A previous model intercomparison of the Tambora aerosol cloud has highlighted substantial differences among simulated volcanic aerosol properties in the pre-industrial stratosphere and has led to questions about the applicability of global aerosol models for large-magnitude explosive eruptions prior to the observational period. Here, we compare the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol cloud following the well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption simulated with six interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models to a range of observational data sets. Our primary focus is on the uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission following the Pinatubo eruption, as prescribed in the Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), in the framework of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). Six global models with interactive aerosol microphysics took part in this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM, and UM-UKCA. Model simulations are performed by varying the SO2 injection amount (ranging between 5 and 10 Tg S) and the altitude of injection (between 18–25 km). The comparisons show that all models consistently demonstrate faster reduction from the peak in sulfate mass burden in the tropical stratosphere. Most models also show a stronger transport towards the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere, at the expense of the observed tropical confinement, suggesting a much weaker subtropical barrier in all the models, which results in a shorter e-folding time compared to the observations. Furthermore, simulations in which more than 5 Tg S in the form of SO2 is injected show an initial overestimation of the sulfate burden in the tropics and, in some models, in the Northern Hemisphere and a large surface area density a few months after the eruption compared to the values measured in the tropics and the in situ measurements over Laramie. This draws attention to the importance of including processes such as the ash injection for the removal of the initial SO2 and aerosol lofting through local heating.
Abstract. Sulfate geoengineering (SG) methods based on lower stratospheric tropical injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) have been widely discussed in recent years, focusing on the direct and indirect effects they would have on the climate system. Here a potential alternative method is discussed, where sulfur emissions are located at the surface or in the troposphere in the form of carbonyl sulfide (COS) gas. There are two time-dependent chemistry–climate model experiments designed from the years 2021 to 2055, assuming a 40 Tg-Syr-1 artificial global flux of COS, which is geographically distributed following the present-day anthropogenic COS surface emissions (SG-COS-SRF) or a 6 Tg-Syr-1 injection of COS in the tropical upper troposphere (SG-COS-TTL). The budget of COS and sulfur species is discussed, as are the effects of both SG-COS strategies on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth (∼Δτ=0.080 in the years 2046–2055), aerosol effective radius (0.46 µm), surface SOx deposition (+8.9 % for SG-COS-SRF; +3.3 % for SG-COS-TTL), and tropopause radiative forcing (RF; ∼-1.5 W m−2 in all-sky conditions in both SG-COS experiments). Indirect effects on ozone, methane and stratospheric water vapour are also considered, along with the COS direct contribution. According to our model results, the resulting net RF is −1.3 W m−2, for SG-COS-SRF, and −1.5 W m−2, for SG-COS-TTL, and it is comparable to the corresponding RF of −1.7 W m−2 obtained with a sustained injection of 4 Tg-Syr-1 in the tropical lower stratosphere in the form of SO2 (SG-SO2, which is able to produce a comparable increase of the sulfate aerosol optical depth). Significant changes in the stratospheric ozone response are found in both SG-COS experiments with respect to SG-SO2 (∼5 DU versus +1.4 DU globally). According to the model results, the resulting ultraviolet B (UVB) perturbation at the surface accounts for −4.3 % as a global and annual average (versus −2.4 % in the SG-SO2 case), with a springtime Antarctic decrease of −2.7 % (versus a +5.8 % increase in the SG-SO2 experiment). Overall, we find that an increase in COS emissions may be feasible and produce a more latitudinally uniform forcing without the need for the deployment of stratospheric aircraft. However, our assumption that the rate of COS uptake by soils and plants does not vary with increasing COS concentrations will need to be investigated in future work, and more studies are needed on the prolonged exposure effects to higher COS values in humans and ecosystems.
Recombinant porcine factor VIII (rpFVIII) is indicated for treating bleeding episodes in acquired haemophilia A, but there are few data regarding laboratory methods to adequately monitor treatment. This study involving three Italian laboratories aimed to evaluate the analytical performance of different assays for measuring rpFVIII. Five spiked rpFVIII samples (0.5–1.5 IU/mL) were analysed on three days, in triplicate, with eleven combinations of reagents (Werfen, Boston, MA, USA: SynthasIL and SynthaFax for one-stage assay, Chromogenix Coamatic FVIII for chromogenic assay), FVIII depleted plasmas (with or without von Willebrand factor—VWF) and calibrators (HemosIL human calibrator plasma, porcine calibrator diluted in FVIII deficient plasma with or without VWF). The assays were performed on ACL TOP analysers (Werfen, Boston, MA, USA). Intra- and inter-assay and inter-laboratory Coefficient of Variation (CV%) were calculated together with percentage of recovery (% recovery) on the expected value. The results showed that the reagent combinations reaching satisfactory analytical performance are: SynthasIL/human calibrator/deficient plasma+VWF (total recovery 99.4%, inter-laboratory CV 4.04%), SynthasIL/porcine calibrator/deficient plasma+VWF (total recovery 111%, inter-laboratory CV 2.75%) and Chromogenic/ porcine calibrator/deficient plasma+VWF (total recovery 96.6%, inter-laboratory CV 8.32%). This study highlights that the use of porcine standard (when available) and FVIII deficient plasma with VWF should be recommended.
Abstract. Recent model inter-comparison studies highlighted model discrepancies in reproducing the climatic impacts of large explosive volcanic eruptions, calling into question the reliability of global aerosol model simulations for future scenarios. Here, we analyse the simulated evolution of the stratospheric aerosol plume following the well observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption by six interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models in comparison to a range of observational data sets. Our primary focus is on the uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission following the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, as prescribed in the Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), in the framework of the model intercomparison project ISA-MIP. Six global models with interactive aerosol microphysics took part in this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM and UM-UKCA. Model simulations are performed by varying SO2 injection amount (ranging between 5 and 10 Tg-S), and the altitude of injection (between 18–25 km). We find that the common and main weakness among all the models is that they can not reproduce the persistence of the sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. Most models show a stronger transport towards the extratropics in the northern hemisphere, at the expense of the observed tropical confinement, suggesting a much weaker subtropical barrier in all the models, that results in a shorter e-folding time compared to the observations. Moreover, the simulations in which more than 5 Tg-S of SO2 are injected show a large surface area density a few months after the eruption compared to the values measured in the tropics and the in-situ measurements over Laramie. This results in an overestimation of the number of particles globally during the build-up phase, and an underestimation in the Southern Hemisphere, which draws attention to the importance of including processes as the ash injection and the eruption of Cerro Hudson.
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