Vaccines are not administered on a continuous basis, but injections are practically introduced at discrete times often separated by an important number of time units, and this differs depending on the nature of the epidemic and its associated vaccine. In addition, especially when it comes to vaccination, most optimization approaches in the literature and those that have been subject to epidemic models have focused on treating problems that led to continuous vaccination schedules but their applicability remains debatable. In search of a more realistic methodology to resolve this issue, a control modeling design, where the control can be characterized analytically and then optimized, can definitely help to find an optimal regimen of pulsed vaccinations. Therefore, we propose a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) hybrid epidemic model with impulse vaccination control and a compartment that represents the number of vaccinated individuals supposed to not acquire sufficient immunity to become permanently recovered due to the short-term effect of vaccines. A basic reproduction number, when the control is defined as a constant parameter, is calculated. Since we also need to find the optimal values of this impulse control when it is defined as a function of time, we start by stating a general form of an impulse version of Pontryagin’s maximum principle that can be adapted to our case, and then we apply it to our model. Finally, we provide our numerical simulations that are obtained via an impulse progressive-regressive iterative scheme with fixed intervals between impulse times (theoretical example of an impulse at each week), and we conclude with a discussion of our results.
In this paper, we attempt to determine the optimal duration of an anti-epidemic control strategy which targets susceptible people, under the isoperimetric condition that we could not control all individuals of this category due to restricted health resources. We state and prove the local and global stability conditions of free and endemic equilibria of a simple epidemic compartmental model devised in the form of four ordinary differential equations which describe the dynamics of susceptible-controlled-infected-removed populations and where it is taken into account that the controlled people cannot acquire long-lived immunity to move towards the removed compartment due to the temporary effect of the control parameter. Thereafter, we characterize the sought optimal control and we show the effectiveness of this limited control policy along with the research of the optimal duration that is needed to reduce the size of the infected population. The isoperimetric constraint is defined over a fixed horizon, while the objective function is defined over a free horizon present under a quadratic form in the payoff term. The complexity of this optimal control problem requires the execution of three numerical methods all combined together at the same time, namely, the forward–backward sweep method to generate the optimal state and control functions, the secant method adapted to the isoperimetric restriction, and, finally, the fixed point method to obtain the optimal final time.
We consider a discrete-time susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible “again” (SIRS) epidemic model, and we introduce an optimal control function to seek the best control policy for preventing the spread of an infection to the susceptible population. In addition, we define a new compartment, which models the dynamics of the number of controlled individuals and who are supposed not to be able to reach a long-term immunity due to the limited effect of control. Furthermore, we treat the resolution of this optimal control problem when there is a restriction on the number of susceptible people who have been controlled along the time of the control strategy. Further, we provide sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of the sought optimal control, whose characterization is also given in accordance with an isoperimetric constraint. Finally, we present the numerical results obtained, using a computational method, which combines the secant method with discrete progressive-regressive schemes for the resolution of the discrete two-point boundary value problem.
Compared to Susceptible-Infected-Removed Susceptible (SIRS) systems, where it is supposed that a removed population has lost its immunity after being healed from an infection and moves to the susceptible compartment, the S-Exposed-I-R-S (SEIRS) compartmental models, consider also, the presence of an additional compartment named by the variable E which could represent the number of asymptomatic infected individuals, people who are not yet infectious or just exposed to infection. Based on these assumptions, we devise a multi-regions SEIRS discrete-time model which describes infection dynamics due to the presence of an epidemic in regions that are connected with their neighbors by any kind of anthropological movement. The main goal from this kind of modeling, is to introduce after, controls variables which restrict movements of the infected individuals coming from the vicinity of the region targeted by our control strategy we call here by the travel-blocking vicinity optimal control approach. A grid of colored cells is presented to illustrate the whole domain affected by the epidemic while each cell represents a sub-domain or region. In order to illustrate an example of these SEIRS dynamics, we choose an example of infection which is supposed starting from only one cell located in one of the corners of the grid, while the region aiming to control, is supposed to be located in the 2nd line and 4th column of the grid. It is important to note, this optimization approach could be applied to any cell of the grid, and the source of infection could also be supposed to start from any cell. In fact, the example is presented, just to show the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy when it is applied to a cell with an important number of connections (i.e. with 8 neighboring cells in our simulations).
Mass vaccination campaigns play major roles in the war against epidemics. Such prevention strategies cannot always reach their goals significantly without the help of media and awareness campaigns used to prevent contacts between susceptible and infected people. Feelings of fear, infodemics, and misconception could lead to some fluctuations of such policies. In addition to the vaccination strategy, the movement restriction approach is essential because of the factor of mobility or travel. However, anti-epidemic border measures may also be disturbed if some infected travelers manage to escape and infiltrate into a safer region. In this paper, we aim to study infection dynamics related to the spatial spread of an epidemic in interconnected regions in the presence of random perturbations caused by the three above-mentioned reasons. Therefore, we devise a stochastic multi-region epidemic model in which contacts between susceptible and infected populations, vaccination-based and movement restriction optimal control approaches are all assumed to be unpredictable, and then, we discuss the effectiveness of such policies. In order to reach our goal, we employ a stochastic maximum principle version for noised systems, state and prove the sufficient and necessary conditions of optimality, and finally provide the numerical results obtained using a stochastic progressive-regressive schemes method.
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