One of the purposes of the unconditional cash transfer program (Bantuan LangsungTunai

The prediction of future macroeconomic conditions is needed by the government to carry out the planning and budgeting. This study predicts macro indicators in Hulu Sungai Utara Regency in the period 2017-2022. The method used is univariateforecasting, which includes the ARIMA model, exponential smoothing, and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. The macroeconomic indicators used in this study are real Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP), economic growth, unemployment rate, and income distribution. The results of the analysis show that Brown's forecasting model is predicted that the real GDRP value tends to increase, forecasting results using a simple model on economic growth and the ARIMA (0.0,0) model on the unemployment rate, had predicted tends to be constant. And, the prediction of income distribution with the Holt model tends to increase. Keywords: macroeconomic, univariate, forecasting, ARIMA, exponential smoothing JEL Classification: E0, O1, C0

Infrastructure is a part of accelerating economic growth. Theconstruction of toll roads can provide positive and negative impacts.The existence of toll roads can reduce transportation and productioncosts, which will increase domestic and international marketefficiency. However, the construction of toll roads is feared can killsmall businesses. Studies of the effect of operational exit tolls onwelfare are still limited in Indonesia. This study was conductedto identify the impact of toll roads on community welfare in thePandaan-Malang exit tolls area. Using paired t-test and the clusteranalysis method showed that the positive and negative impacts oftoll roads construction on the community in the exit tolls area arevaried for each cluster. This study can be used as the basis forformulating policies for communities affected by operational exit tolls,in particular. Creating new economic centers in the exit tolls based onlocal uniqueness can minimize the negative impacts on communities.How to Cite:Dwiputri, I.N., Allo, A.G., Yusida, E. & Seprillina, L. (2022). The Effect of the Operational Exit Tolls on the Welfare of the Local Community. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 11(1), 73-82. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v11i1.22108.

Electricity is a development priority for low and middle income countries, including Indonesia, especially in the households living in suburban and rural areas. By 2020, Indonesia's electrification ratio has reached 96.71%. However, there were 433 villages that did not have electricity, most of which were located in eastern Indonesia (Papua, West Papua, East Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku). Investment in the electricity sector will drive regional economic growth. This research attempts to figure out the impact of investment in electricity on economy. This study used Indonesian inter-regional Input-Output data. The method used in this study was the Interregional Input-Output (IRIO) model. The analysis shows that electricity impacted not only the territory being built but also other regions in Indonesia. Electricity industry investment in Indonesia have been able to provide a multiplier effect on the economy as many as 3.11. Java region gets the greatest benefit from electricity development in Indonesia. This was rationally acceptable due to the fact that most of the industry was located in this region. This causes a development gap between Java and outside Java. It is necessary to accelerate reallocate several national strategic industries on various islands in Indonesia based on the advantages of each region and to strive for areas that are still "dark" to have electricity.JEL Classification E22; L94; R15

Inflation is one of the economy's most important indicators and an economic challenge that is a concern for developing countries such as Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the influence of several variables that are suspected of having an influence on inflation in Indonesia. The independent variables include the money supply, BI rate, exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product, and imports. Data were obtained from the Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) from 2010 to 2020. This study uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) to determine the effect of the independent variables in the short and long term. The study concluded that the money supply had a positive but not significant effect in the short term, but in the long term had a significant effect on inflation. The BI and exchange rates have a significant and positive effect on long-term and short-term inflation. Gross Domestic Product does not have a significant positive effect on inflation in both the long and short term. Imports show a positive but not significant with inflation in the long and short term.