Active fire observations with satellite instruments exhibit a well-documented increase of the detection threshold with increasing pixel footprint size, i.e., distance from the sub-satellite point. This results in a viewing angle-dependent, negative bias in gridded representations of the observed Fire Radiative Power (FRP), which in turn is frequently being used for climate monitoring of biomass burning and for pyrogenic emission inventories. We present a method based on quantile mapping to alleviate this bias and apply it to the gridded-FRP from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instruments. The gridded-FRP observations are corrected with a correction function that depends on the satellite viewing angle and the magnitude of FRP in each grid cell. Assuming the fire observations at nadir to be the best representation of the truth, we derive a correction function by mapping cumulative distribution function (CDF) of off-nadir gridded-FRP to the CDF of near-nadir gridded-FRP. The method can be directly applied to correct the negative bias in gridded-FRP observations at a grid resolution of 1 ∘ or more. The performance of the correction methodology is confirmed through comparisons with co-located Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite observations: After bias correction, the gridded-FRP observations from both satellites agree better than before, particularly over savanna, tropical forests, and extra-tropical forests. Experiments with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) show that the impacts of the bias-corrected MODIS/Aqua gridded-FRP observations and VIIRS/Suomi-NPP gridded-FRP observations on regional FRP analyses are comparable, which confirms the potential for improving fire emission inventories and climate monitoring based on FRP.

Abstract. A methodology based on quantile regression neural networks (QRNNs) is presented that identifies and corrects the cloud impact on microwave humidity sounder radiances at 183 GHz. This approach estimates the posterior distributions of noise-free clear-sky (NFCS) radiances, providing nearly bias-free estimates of clear-sky radiances with a full posterior error distribution. It is first demonstrated by application to a present sensor, the MicroWave Humidity Sounder 2 (MWHS-2); then the applicability to sub-millimetre (sub-mm) sensors is also analysed. The QRNN results improve upon what operational cloud filtering techniques like a scattering index can achieve but are ultimately imperfect due to limited information content on cirrus impact from traditional microwave channels – the negative departures associated with high cloud impact are successfully corrected, but thin cirrus clouds cannot be fully corrected. In contrast, when sub-mm observations are used, QRNN successfully corrects most cases with cloud impact, with only 2 %–6 % of the cases left partially corrected. The methodology works well even if only one sub-mm channel (325 GHz) is available. When using sub-mm observations, cloud correction usually results in error distributions with a standard deviation less than typical channel noise values. Furthermore, QRNN outputs predicted quantiles for case-specific uncertainty estimates, successfully representing the uncertainty of cloud correction for each observation individually. In comparison to deterministic correction or filtering approaches, the corrected radiances and attendant uncertainty estimates have great potential to be used efficiently in assimilation systems due to being largely unbiased and adding little further uncertainty to the measurements.

Abstract. Fire-spotting is often responsible for a dangerous flare up in the wildfire and causes secondary ignitions isolated from the primary fire zone leading to perilous situations. In this paper a complete physical parametrisation of fire-spotting is presented within a formulation aimed to include random processes into operational fire spread models. This formulation can be implemented into existing operational models as a post-processing scheme at each time step, without calling for any major changes in the original framework. In particular, the efficacy of this formulation has already been shown for wildfire

The accurate simulation of microwave observations of clouds and precipitation are computationally challenging. A common simplification is the assumption of totally random orientation (TRO); however, studies have revealed that TRO occurs relatively infrequently in reality. A more appropriate assumption is that of azimuthally random orientation (ARO), but so far it has been a computationally expensive task. Recently a fast approximate approach was introduced that incorporates hydrometeor orientation into the assimilation of data from microwave conically scanning instruments. The approach scales the extinction in vertical (V) and horizontal (H) polarised channels to approximate ARO. In this study, the application of the approach was extended to a more basic radiative transfer perspective using the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator and the high-frequency channels of the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GMI). The comparison of forward simulations and GMI observations showed that with a random selection of scaling factors from a uniform distribution between 1 and 1.4–1.5, it is possible to mimic the full distribution of observed polarisation differences at 166 GHz over land and water. The applicability of this model at 660 GHz was also successfully demonstrated by means of existing airborne data. As a complement, a statistical model for polarised snow emissivity between 160 and 190 GHz was also developed. Combining the two models made it possible to reproduce the polarisation signals that were observed over all surface types, including snow and sea ice. Further, we also investigated the impact of orientation on the ice water path (IWP) retrievals. It has been shown that ignoring hydrometeor orientation has a significant negative impact (∼20% in the tropics) on retrieval accuracy. The retrieval with GMI observations produced highly realistic IWP distributions. A significant highlight was the retrieval over snow covered regions, which have been neglected in previous retrieval studies. These results provide increased confidence in the performance of passive microwave observation simulations and mark an essential step towards developing the retrievals of ice hydrometeor properties based on data from GMI, the Ice Cloud Imager (ICI) and other conically scanning instruments.

Abstract. A methodology based on quantile regression neural networks (QRNN) is presented that identifies and corrects the cloud impact on microwave humidity sounder radiances at 183 GHz. This approach estimates the posterior distributions of noise free clear-sky (NFCS) radiances, providing nearly bias-free estimates of clear-sky radiances with a full posterior error distribution. It is first demonstrated by application to a present sensor, the MicroWave Humidity Sounder-2 (MWHS-2), then the applicability to sub-millimeter (sub-mm) sensors is also analysed. The QRNN results improve upon what operational cloud filtering techniques like a scattering index can achieve, but are ultimately imperfect due to limited information content on cirrus impact from traditional microwave channels – the negative departures associated with high cloud impact are successfully corrected, but thin cirrus clouds cannot be fully corrected. In contrast, when sub-mm observations are used, QRNN successfully corrects most cases with cloud impact, with only 2–6 % of the cases left partially corrected. The methodology works well even if only one sub-mm channel (325 GHz) is available. When using sub-mm observations, cloud correction usually results in error distributions with standard deviation less than typical channel noise values. Furthermore, QRNN outputs predicted quantiles for case-specific uncertainty estimates, successfully representing the uncertainty of cloud correction for each observation individually. In comparison to deterministic correction or filtering approaches, the corrected radiances and attendant uncertainty estimates have great potential to be used efficiently in assimilation systems due to being largely unbiased and adding little further uncertainty to the measurements.