The study deals with turn-of-the-century changes in the total annual river runoff distribution and high and iow flows in Latvia, covering river basins within four hydrological districts which vary according to size and physiographical conditions. Mathematical statistical methods were applied in the analysis of river discharge data series for two study periods of 1951-2009 and 1881-2009. The present results confirm the basic statement concerning the Baitic countries that major significant changes in river runoff during the iast two decades have occurred between spring (decrease) and winter (increase) seasons. Mostly insignificant changes in summer runoff and significant/insignificant changes in autumn runoff were found. Analysis shows that a statistically significant trend of increase in low flow for the cold period and a significant trend of decrease in the high discharge and coefficient d of uneven runoff distribution were detected. Changes in river hydrological regime are mainly caused by changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation processes following climate warming, which has taken place. Latvian river hydrography has therefore changed and become more similar to Western European rivers.

Changes in the hydrological regime of the lakes of Latvia depend on natural and anthropogenic causes. This publication summarises the results of the research on the long-term changes in the water level, thermal and ice regimes in the seven largest lakes of Latvia: Liepājas, Usma, Ķīšezers, Burtnieks, Rāzna, Sventes and Lielais Ludzas, and their regional specifics from 1926 to 2002. For most of the studied lakes, the water level has been regulated, except for the lakes Liepājas, Burtnieks and Ķīšezers. Global climate warming has caused considerable changes in the hydrological regime of the lakes during the last decades and the surface water temperature has increased. At the same time, the number of days with ice cover and the thickness of ice have decreased. A positive trend in the freezing date and a statistically significant negative trend for the ice break-up date was found for all lakes. The lakes Liepājas and Usma are located in the western part and Lake Kīšezers in the central part, therefore their hydrological regime, in particular, the thermal and ice regime, differs from the lakes Burtnieks, Rāznas, Sventes and Lielais Ludzas which are located in the northern and south-eastern part of Latvia.

The hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model) has been applied to six river basins in Latvia to assess climate change and its impacts on the river runoff regime at the end of the 21 st century. Climate change has been predicted by applying the regional climate model RCAO with the driving boundary conditions from the global general circulation model HadAM3H applied for the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the following time periods: 1961-1990 (control) and 2071-2100 (scenario). Changes have been found under both scenarios. Major changes in the future hydro-climate data were forecasted according to the A2 scenario, where the trends of increase are identified for the annual mean air temperature (by 4°C), the precipitation (by 12%) and the evapotranspiration (by 21%), while the river runoff will decrease by 15% at the same time. The changes in the length of the growing season and heavy rainfall have been predicted. Both scenarios forecast changes in the seasonal runoff regime where the major part of the runoff will be generated in winter, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The maximum river discharge will occur in winter instead of spring.

The study describes the trends of monthly mean water temperature (from May to October) and the annual maximum water temperature of the rivers in Latvia during the time period from 1945 to 2000. The results demonstrated that the mean water temperatures during the monitoring period from May to October were higher in the largest rivers (from 13.6 °C to 16.1 °C) compared to those in the smallest rivers (from 11.5 °C to 15.7 °C). Similar patterns were seen for the maximum water temperature: in large rivers from 22.9 °C to 25.7 °C, and in small rivers from 20.8 °C to 25.8 °C. Generally, lower water temperatures occurred in rivers with a high groundwater inflow rate, for example, in rivers of the Gauja basin, in particular, in the Amata River. Mann-Kendall test results demonstrated that during the monitoring period from May to October, mean water temperatures had a positive trend. However, the annual maximum temperature had a negative trend.