The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s.

A B S T R A C T Sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has up to now been strongest during summer. In contrast, the sea ice concentration north of Svalbard has experienced a larger decline during winter since 1979. The trend in winter ice area loss is close to 10% per decade, and concurrent with a 0.38C per decade warming of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean in this region. Simultaneously, there has been a 28C per decade warming of winter mean surface air temperature north of Svalbard, which is 20Á45% higher than observations on the west coast. Generally, the ice edge north of Svalbard has retreated towards the northeast, along the Atlantic Water pathway. By making reasonable assumptions about the Atlantic Water volume and associated heat transport, we show that the extra oceanic heat brought into the region is likely to have caused the sea ice loss. The reduced sea ice cover leads to more oceanic heat transferred to the atmosphere, suggesting that part of the atmospheric warming is driven by larger open water area. In contrast to significant trends in sea ice concentration, Atlantic Water temperature and air temperature, there is no significant temporal trend in the local winds. Thus, winds have not caused the long-term warming or sea ice loss. However, the dominant winds transport sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the region north of Svalbard, and the local wind has influence on the year-to-year variability of the ice concentration, which correlates with surface air temperatures, ocean temperatures, as well as the local wind.

Oceanographic observations from the Eurasian Basin north of Svalbard collected between January and June 2015 from the N‐ICE2015 drifting expedition are presented. The unique winter observations are a key contribution to existing climatologies of the Arctic Ocean, and show a ∼100 m deep winter mixed layer likely due to high sea ice growth rates in local leads. Current observations for the upper ∼200 m show mostly a barotropic flow, enhanced over the shallow Yermak Plateau. The two branches of inflowing Atlantic Water are partly captured, confirming that the outer Yermak Branch follows the perimeter of the plateau, and the inner Svalbard Branch the coast. Atlantic Water observed to be warmer and shallower than in the climatology, is found directly below the mixed layer down to 800 m depth, and is warmest along the slope, while its properties inside the basin are quite homogeneous. From late May onwards, the drift was continually close to the ice edge and a thinner surface mixed layer and shallower Atlantic Water coincided with significant sea ice melt being observed.