Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

Abstract. Spain represents an important part of the tourism sector in the Western Mediterranean, which has been affected in the past by tsunamis. Although the tsunami risk at the Spanish coasts is not the highest of the Mediterranean, the necessity of tsunami risk mitigation measures should not be neglected. In the Mediterranean area, Spain is exposed to two different tectonic environments with contrasting characteristics. On one hand, the Alboran Basin characterised by transcurrent and transpressive tectonics and, on the other hand, the North Algerian fold and thrust belt, characterised by compressive tectonics. A set of 22 seismic tsunamigenic sources has been used to estimate the tsunami threat over the Spanish Mediterranean coast of the Iberian peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Maximum wave elevation maps and tsunami travel times have been computed by means of numerical modelling and we have obtained estimations of threat levels for each source over the Spanish coast.

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