Although forest succession has traditionally been approached as a deterministic process, successional trajectories of vegetation change vary widely, even among nearby stands with similar environmental conditions and disturbance histories. Here, we provide the first attempt, to our knowledge, to quantify predictability and uncertainty during succession based on the most extensive long-term datasets ever assembled for Neotropical forests. We develop a novel approach that integrates deterministic and stochastic components into different candidate models describing the dynamical interactions among three widely used and interrelated forest attributes—stem density, basal area, and species density. Within each of the seven study sites, successional trajectories were highly idiosyncratic, even when controlling for prior land use, environment, and initial conditions in these attributes. Plot factors were far more important than stand age in explaining successional trajectories. For each site, the best-fit model was able to capture the complete set of time series in certain attributes only when both the deterministic and stochastic components were set to similar magnitudes. Surprisingly, predictability of stem density, basal area, and species density did not show consistent trends across attributes, study sites, or land use history, and was independent of plot size and time series length. The model developed here represents the best approach, to date, for characterizing autogenic successional dynamics and demonstrates the low predictability of successional trajectories. These high levels of uncertainty suggest that the impacts of allogenic factors on rates of change during tropical forest succession are far more pervasive than previously thought, challenging the way ecologists view and investigate forest regeneration.

The debate over the maintenance of high diversity of tree species in tropical forests centers on the role of tree-fall gaps as a primary source of disturbance. Using a 10-year data series accumulated since Hurricane Joan struck the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua in 1988, we examined the pattern of species accumulation over time and with increased sampling of individuals. Our analysis shows that the pattern after a hurricane differs from the pattern after a simple tree-fall disturbance, and we conclude that pioneers are limited in large disturbances and thus do not suppress other species the way they do in smaller disturbances.

The contribution of mycorrhizal associations to maintaining tree diversity patterns in tropical rain forests is poorly known. Many tropical monodominant trees form ectomycorrhizal (EM) associations, and there is evidence that the EM mutualism contributes to the maintenance of monodominance. It is assumed that most other tropical tree species form arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) associations, and while many mycorrhizal surveys have been done, the mycorrhizal status of numerous tropical tree taxa remains undocumented. In this study, we tested the assumption that most tropical trees form AM associations by sampling root vouchers from tree and liana species in monodominant Dicymbe corymbosa forest and an adjacent mixed rain forest in Guyana. Roots were assessed for the presence/ absence of AM and EM structures. Of the 142 species of trees and lianas surveyed, three tree species (the mono-dominant D. corymbosa, the grove-forming D. altsonii, and the non-dominant Aldina insignis) were EM, 137 were exclusively AM, and two were non-mycorrhizal. Both EM and AM structures wer e observed in D. corymbosa and D. altsonii. These results provide empirical data supporting the assumption that most tropical trees form AM associations for this region in the Guiana Shield and provide the first report of dual EM/AM colonization in Dicymbe species. Dual colonization of the Dicymbe species should be further explored to determine if this ability contributes to the establishment and maintenance of site dominance.

We analyzed a data set accumulated over a 12-year period subsequent to the catastrophic disturbance of a rain forest by a hurricane. We analyzed the data to determine whether observed trajectories correspond to expectations from an equilibrium or nonequilibrium model of community structure. The equilibrium case, implying a single basin of attraction, suggests that trajectories should become ever more similar over time. The nonequilibrium case, implying multiple basins of attraction, suggests the opposite. The data from this particular forest, located on the eastern seaboard of Nicaragua, strongly support the multiple basin hypothesis, and thus the nonequilibrium model.

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