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This paper explores potential future land use/cover (LUC) dynamics in the Attica region, Greece, under three distinct economic performance scenarios. During the last decades, Attica underwent a significant and predominantly unregulated process of urban growth, due to a substantial increase in housing demand coupled with limited land use planning controls. However, the recent financial crisis affected urban growth trends considerably. This paper uses the observed LUC trends between 1991 and 2016 to sketch three divergent future scenarios of economic development. The observed LUC trends are then analysed using 27 dynamic, biophysical, socio-economic, terrain and proximity-based factors, to generate transition potential maps, implementing a Random Forests (RF) regression modelling approach. Scenarios are projected to 2040 by implementing a spatially explicit Cellular Automata (CA) model. The resulting maps are subjected to a multiple resolution sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of spatial resolution of the input data to the model outputs. Findings show that, under the current setting of an underdeveloped land use planning apparatus, a long-term scenario of high economic growth will increase built-up surfaces in the region by almost 24%, accompanied by a notable decrease in natural areas and cropland. Interestingly, in the case that the currently negative economic growth rates persist, artificial surfaces in the region are still expected to increase by approximately 7.5% by 2040.

This paper discusses rescaling trajectories in the European Union (EU), focusing on Greece. Two consecutive state spatial restructuring waves are noted in Greece the 1980s and the 1990s, both resting upon, but failing to mobilize, local socio-political responses. The limited success of these endeavours, it is argued, reflects path dependency in scalar arrangements and the arrested state of local relational dynamics. During the past decade, a third and comprehensive attempt at rearticulating established formations of state spatial organization has been launched, marked by the construction of new state intervention scales at the subnational and EU levels. The perception of cities and regions as ‘action spaces’ and the promotion of ‘place-based’ and ‘networking governance’ initiatives suggest rescaling intentionality. In light of the narrow involvement of localities in the process, rescaling reflects centralist steering and the markings of EU policy prioritizations, aimed at triggering a competitiveness-oriented locational policy. This paper explores the path-dependent evolution of state spatial forms in Greece, commenting on the context-specific risks associated with the competitiveness shift.