Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on Jan 30, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we are studying a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual social response and control measures by the government. The real data available about infectious cases from $14^{th}$ March to $26^{th}$ March 2020 is analysed and accordingly various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach's fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Numerical computations are done utilizing the iterative Laplace transform method. In the end, we illustrate the obtained results graphically. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies using the mathematical model.

Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on 30 January, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April, 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we have analysed a Bats–Hosts–Reservoir–People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual response and control measures by the government. The real data available about number of infected cases from 14 March, 2000 to 26 March, 2020 is analysed and, accordingly, various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach’s fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Further, we conduct stability analysis for both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. On the basis of sensitivity analysis and dynamics of the threshold parameter, we estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies of the disease using the proposed model. Numerical computations are carried out utilising the iterative Laplace transform method and comparative study of different fractional differential operators is done. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated. Finally, we illustrate the obtained results graphically.

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Based on the known curariform action of tris(bipyridyl)iron(II) sulfate and other complex ions, two series of bifunctional ligands designed to hold transition metal ions at approximately the same distance apart as the interquaternary ammonium distance in the potent neuromuscular block agents were synthesized. In the first series two 1,10-phenanthrolines (R1) were joined at the 2 position to form four compounds: R1CO-c-N(CH2CH2)2N-COR1, R1CONH-1,2-C6H10-NHCOR1, R1CONH-1,2-C6H4-NHCOR1, and R1CON(CH3)(CH2)2N(CH3)COR1. In the second series two terpyridines (R1) were joined by different chains to give R2(CH2)2CH=CH(CH2)2R2, R2CH2C(CH3)(OH)(CH2)2C(CH23)(OH)CH2R2, R2CH2C(CH3)(OH)C(CH3)(OH)CH2R2, and R2CH2(OH)-1,4-C6H10-(OH)CH2R2. Three other ligands in which the terpyridines were joined by 5-, 60, and 7-methylene groups were also made. The ligands were converted to nickel(II) complexes and the coordination of each nickel ion was completed by adding terpyridine. These were assayed by the intravenous mouse LD50 method. The most potent ligand, the di-hydroxy compound R2CH2(OH)-1,4-C6H10-(OH)CH2R2 was then converted to the bis(pyridinebipyridine)diosmium-(II) coordinated complex and assayed by the iv mouse LD50 method and by the ED50 isolated guinea-pig diaphragm method. By the iv mouse LD50 method, it was about twice as potent as d-tubocurarine and by the isolated diaphragm method, it was 16 times more potent. The compound has been called dihydroxyosmarine tetrachloride or DHO for short. The term "transarine" ions is proposed for transition metal coordination complexes having curariform action. The position of the transarine ions is discussed in the classification of cholinergic ligands, in structure-action relationships, and in relation to some current ideas on receptor mechanisms.