We search for a valid and quantifiable description of how and when humans acquire the ability to dominate major features of the Earth system. While common approaches (such as Kaplan et al. 2011 for example) seek to quantify the human impact upon the carbon cycle by identifying the area of land cleared by humans, we choose a more comprehensive path. Our point of departure is different human modes of subsistence, and we base our analysis on their social metabolism, in particular their energy metabolism. As a starting point, we use Ehrlich's classical IPAT formula, and give it a specific interpretation: human impact on Earth equals population size times affluence (interpreted as energy available per person) times technology-for each mode of subsistence. The overall impact (or rather human pressure) then equals the composite sum of these.. We qualitatively describe the functional characteristics of hunter gatherers, agrarian and industrial modes of subsistence such as population dynamics, energy regime and the technologies by which they interact with their environment. In a 'toy' model, we translate these considerations into global numbers for the past millennia: we estimate the respective population sizes and affluence (energy), and finally also technology concerning its impact on the carbon cycle. Along this path, there are a number of findings: that it is reasonably possible to cross-check the size of pre-industrial agrarian populations from the size of urban populations; that it was in the last centuries BC that the size of agrarian populations exceeded those of hunter gatherers; that there seems to be a loglinear function of increasing average energetic metabolic rate from human basic metabolism across hunter gatherers and the agrarian mode to the industrial regime; and that from AD 1500 onwards, there is a very close relation between the urban population and fossil fuel use. We see a major historical dividing line around AD 1500: up to then, human population growth and metabolic rates carry about equal weight in increasing human pressure on the environment approximately fivefold from the year AD 1 onwards. From then on, fossil fuel use gradually raises the socially disposable energy to unprecedented levels and introduces a take off in population and technology. From then on, the overall pressure of humanity upon Earth increases by one order of magnitude; energy intensity contributes to this rise by roughly tripling the impact of population growth. Technology, because it is based upon a shift from biomass to fossil fuels (and other "modern" energy carriers), does not moderate this impact, but enhances it by a factor of 1.5. Finally, we also draw critical conclusions concerning the applied IPAT model: apparently, there are strong interactions
This research explored the feasibility of transforming the island of Samothraki, Greece, into a UNESCO biosphere reserve. The goal was to assess whether this would help to foster a sustainable socio-economic development and to preserve the unique natural and cultural heritage of the island. In recent years the number of seasonal residents and tourists on the island has been growing substantially, and so, too, have the demands upon facili ties and infrastructures. The number of livestock, primarily goats and sheep, has increased exponentially, enhanced by the agricultu ral policies of the EU. Overgrazing, in combination with the steepness of terrain, has led to severe soil erosion, even within the existing Natura 2000 conserva tion area. Such conditions made it apparent that a new develop ment model was needed, and an initiative was started to create a biosphere reserve. In a transdisciplinary process, the scientists gradually transferred ownership of this vision to local stakeholders. A biophysical and socio-economic assess ment showed that a biosphere reserve would be appropriate and be welcomed by the majority of stakeholders. The community council recently endorsed an application to UNESCO. 182Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Lazaros Xenidis, Simron Jit Singh, Irene Pallua FORSCHUNG | RESEARCHBiosphere reserves are areas encompassing valuable ecosystems and social communities that wish to combine the conservation of ecosystems with their sustainable use. They are nominated by national governments and remain under their jurisdiction but are internationally recognized and protected by UNESCO, based on the Seville Strategy and the Statutory Framework (UNES -CO 1996). In the World Network of Biosphere Reserves, exchange of information, experience, and personnel is facilitated. There are about 580 biosphere reserves in 114 countries (UNESCO 2011), combining nature conservation, environmental monitoring, training, demonstration, local participation, and sustainable development. Biosphere reserves contain a core area that strictly conserves minimally disturbed ecosystems, a buffer zone surrounding the core, and a transition zone that allows limited socio-economic activities such as sustainable tourism or agriculture.On the basis of this problem definition and vision, an open, thorough, and critical process was designed to systematically explore whether a development pathway as outlined in the bio sphere reserve concept would be feasible for the island of Samothraki and whether it would be welcomed by local stakeholders. 1 As a first step, answers were sought to the following questions (figure 1):Question 1: Does the island of Samothraki provide adequate natural, social, and economic opportunities for a pathway of nature conservation and sustainable development as envisioned in the UNESCO biosphere reserve concept? Question 2: If yes: Is the vision of becoming a biosphere reserve in accordance with UNESCO standards attractive to local (and regional) stakeholders? Does it offer containment and an identity that i...
The article deals with the historical transition from coal to oil and natural gas, commonly referred to as hydrocarbons. This transition occurred throughout the industrialized world between the 1940s and 1970s, yet the causes for the shift from coal to hydrocarbons are only marginally understood. Drawing from recent research on historical energy transitions, we examine the takeover of hydrocarbons in the context of the incumbent coal configurations. Building on previous explanations, we identify two analytical perspectives: (1) the view on the overall energy supply system that diversified when hydrocarbons were introduced, and (2) that on the consumers of energy, who replaced coal with hydrocarbon alternatives. The central argument is that the two perspectives need to be integrated to fully understand why hydrocarbons could replace coal. This monumental change in energy history was no simple shift in fuels, but a complex transition that occurred at (1) the level of energy supply, where hydrocarbons became available as alternatives to coal, and (2) the level of energy consumption, where consumers in the areas of railway and maritime transportation, residential heating, industrial production, and electricity generation actively decided to use hydrocarbon alternatives as substitutions for coal.
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