Batesian mimicry, in which harmless species (mimics) deter predators by deceitfully imitating the warning signals of noxious species (models), generates striking cases of phenotypic convergence that are classic examples of evolution by natural selection. However, mimicry of venomous coral snakes has remained controversial because of unresolved conflict between the predictions of mimicry theory and empirical patterns in the distribution and abundance of snakes. Here we integrate distributional, phenotypic and phylogenetic data across all New World snake species to demonstrate that shifts to mimetic coloration in nonvenomous snakes are highly correlated with coral snakes in both space and time, providing overwhelming support for Batesian mimicry. We also find that bidirectional transitions between mimetic and cryptic coloration are unexpectedly frequent over both long- and short-time scales, challenging traditional views of mimicry as a stable evolutionary ‘end point' and suggesting that insect and snake mimicry may have different evolutionary dynamics.

Population divergence is the first step in allopatric speciation, as has long been recognized in both theoretical models of speciation and empirical explorations of natural systems. All else being equal, lineages with substantial population differentiation should form new species more quickly than lineages that maintain range-wide genetic cohesion through high levels of gene flow. However, there have been few direct tests of the extent to which population differentiation predicts speciation rates as measured on phylogenetic trees. Here, we explicitly test the links between organismal traits, population-level processes, and phylogenetic speciation rates across a diverse clade of Australian lizards that shows remarkable variation in speciation rate. Using genome-wide double digest restriction site-associated DNA data from 892 individuals, we generated a comparative data set on isolation by distance and population differentiation across 104 putative species-level lineages (operational taxonomic units). We find that species show substantial variation in the extent of population differentiation, and this variation is predicted by organismal traits that are thought to be proxies for dispersal and deme size. However, variation in population structure does not predict variation in speciation rate. Our results suggest that population differentiation is not the rate-limiting step in species formation and that other ecological and historical factors are primary determinants of speciation rates at macroevolutionary scales.

Genetic diversity is a fundamental characteristic of species and is affected by many factors, including mutation rate, population size, life history and demography. To better understand the processes that influence levels of genetic diversity across taxa, we collected genome-wide restriction-associated DNA data from more than 500 individuals spanning 76 nominal species of Australian scincid lizards in the genus Ctenotus. To avoid potential biases associated with variation in taxonomic practice across the group, we used coalescent-based species delimitation to delineate 83 species-level lineages within the genus for downstream analyses. We then used these genetic data to infer levels of within-population genetic diversity. Using a phylogenetically informed approach, we tested whether variation in genetic diversity could be explained by population size, environmental heterogeneity or historical demography. We find that the strongest predictor of genetic diversity is a novel proxy for census population size: the number of vouchered occurrences in museum databases. However, museum occurrences only explain a limited proportion of the variance in genetic diversity, suggesting that genetic diversity might be difficult to predict at shallower phylogenetic scales.

Color polymorphism in natural populations can manifest as a striking patchwork of phenotypes in space, with neighboring populations characterized by dramatic differences in morph composition. These geographic mosaics can be challenging to explain in the absence of localized selection because they are unlikely to result from simple isolation-by-distance or clinal variation in selective regimes. To identify processes that can lead to the formation of geographic mosaics, we developed a simulation-based model to explore the influence of predator perspective, selection, migration, and genetic linkage of color loci on allele frequencies in polymorphic populations over space and time. Using simulated populations inspired by the biology of Heliconius longwing butterflies, Cepaea land snails, Oophaga poison frogs, and Sonora ground snakes, we found that the relative sizes of predator and prey home ranges can produce large differences in morph composition between neighboring populations under both positive and negative frequency-dependent selection. We also demonstrated the importance of the interaction of predator perspective with the type of frequency dependence and localized directional selection across migration and selection intensities. Our results show that regional-scale predation can promote the formation of phenotypic mosaics in prey species, without the need to invoke spatial variation in selective regimes. We suggest that predator behavior can play an important and underappreciated role in the formation and maintenance of geographic mosaics in polymorphic species.