Objective. To calculate the economic impact of violence across Mexico in 2021 and project costs for 2021–2030. Methods. Incidence data was obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, (SESNSP), National Population Council (CONAPO), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE). Our model incorporates incidence estimates of the costs of events associated with violence (e.g., homicides, hospitalizations, rapes, extortions, robbery, etc). Results. The economic impact of crime and violence in Mexico for the year 2021 has been estimated at about $192 billion US dollars, which corresponds to 14.6% of the national GDP. By reducing violence 50% by 2030, we estimate savings of at least US$110 billion dollars. This represents a saving of US$1 376 372 for each company and more than US$66 771 for each Mexican. Conclusion. Violence and homicides have become one of the most pressing public health and economic concerns for their effect on health, development, and economic growth. Due to low cost and high impact, prevention is the most efficient way to respond to crime and violence while also being an essential component of sustainable strategies aimed at improving citizen security.

Background: Crime and violence have hindered the development of the people, economy, and health of Mexico. In this study, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis to illustrate the compounding costs associated with not addressing the risk factors that lead children and young persons to violence and crime in Mexico.Methods: We created a fictional account of a typical male criminal offender in Mexico based on quantitative and qualitative data. Using quantitative and qualitative data from public, private, and government sources, we calculated the cost of each stage of Juan’s life along with the total cost of all crimes, violence, and events until the age of 37. Results: Direct and indirect costs increased exponentially over time as violent actions and crimes became more severe. The stage where costs were lowest was infancy, totaling $6,216 USD, while the costliest stage was adulthood totaling $1,034,847 USD. The total cost associated with the offender’s life (up to age 37) was $1,752,501 USD, while the total estimated cost of implementing prevention programs in each stage of life was $144,254 USD.Conclusions: The Mexican government must prioritize implementing evidence-based policies and programs for mitigating the risk factors that lead young persons to a life of violence and crime. Specifically, investing in programs at the earliest stages of life has been shown to have the greatest benefit in offsetting the compounding associated costs later in life. Our study shows that, theoretically, for every dollar invested on interventions to support Juan’s life, $12 are saved. This study can be used as an example and recommendation for other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, which suffer from similar levels of violence and crime, and from similar cultural and socioeconomic conditions.