The paper estimates the likely effects of the AfCFTA on the east african community(EAC) countries. The paper adopts two approaches. First, a trend analysis of the EAC exports and imports to and from the rest of Africa and the world at large using data from the Trade Map database. Second, we use the WITS‐SMART analytical framework. It is established that the EAC countries mainly export agricultural commodities and products, and minerals, which are not likely to be readily imported by the rest of Africa. This is because between 2001 and 2018, the African continent heavily relied on external markets for exports and imports. Therefore, signing the AfCFTA agreement is a welcome step, but it may not necessarily increase EAC trade with the rest of African and intra‐African trade. Results for the trade effects suggest a mixed effect among the EAC countries. All the EAC countries incur tariff revenue losses, although this varies in absolute amounts and proportions. Whereas Uganda and Burundi experience positive welfare effects, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda experience negative welfare effects. The policy implications include: a need to build capacity for production; pursue product diversification and sophistication; innovate and attract investments; adopt high international products standards; and target industrialization as a must.

Typescript prepared by Lisa Winkler at UNU-WIDER. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the research programme from the governments of Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.The World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) was established by the United Nations University (UNU) as its first research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland in 1985. The Institute undertakes applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting the developing and transitional economies, provides a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable, and environmentally sustainable growth, and promotes capacity strengthening and training in the field of economic and social policy-making. Work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and through networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world.

Poverty data rarely capture processes of change, limiting our ability to understand poverty trajectories at the individual or household levels. This article uses a household survey, village‐level participatory studies and indepth life‐history interviews to examine people's poverty trajectories and to identify what drives and maintains chronic poverty. Composite shocks can propel previously non‐poor households into severe and long‐term poverty. Poverty is hard to escape, and people born into chronically poor households find few opportunities for accumulation and wealth creation. The analysis highlights the importance of poverty interrupters, including the end of conflict and the re‐integration of internally displaced people, and suggests that state‐led interventions would be needed to provide real opportunities to the chronically poor.