In the face of global change, the exploration of possible futures of marine socialecological systems (MSES) becomes increasingly important. A variety of models aims at improving our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and complexities by assessing how systems react to internal and external drivers of change. However, these models are often built from a natural-science perspective through a reductionist and top-down knowledge production process that does not engage with the interests, concerns and knowledge of stakeholders. Our work explores different futures of the Peruvian MSES tied to the Humboldt Current Upwelling System (HCUS) through a sequential integrative participatory scenario process. The methodology used opens novel ways to explore, at different contextual levels, the uncertainties of the future and, in doing so, to include diverging world views of different actors. This approach implies a broader social processing of scientific projections about the future and encourages the articulation of different notions of sustainability. We thereby contribute to current scientific discussions on scenario planning in MSES by exploring potential futures through the analysis of narratives, a process that helps to identify plausible future development pathways that can inform different types of ecosystem modeling or policy making.

Following pro-market policies, the Peruvian state has aimed to regulate profitable fisheries and aquaculture activities in order to increase their production. However, informal and illegal activities not only persist but are also interlinked with formal practices and frameworks, creating intertwined realities in fostering processes of institutional hybridization. This article analyses the (re)production of informal and illegal activities by explaining the formation of hybrid institutional entanglements in the Peruvian anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens ) fishery in Pisco and the Peruvian bay scallop ( Argopecten purpuratus ) aquaculture industry in Sechura. It argues that state policies to promote industrial fisheries and entrepreneurial aquaculture for the global market coupled with limited interest in supporting small-scale fisheries and aquaculture activities have resulted in processes of institutional hybridization. Within these processes, social actors resist and accommodate formal regulatory frameworks to suit their respective needs, while intertwining formal and informal practices and institutional arrangements, based on their political leverage or ability to produce hybrid institutional entanglements in a context where regulation is limited and state authority is negotiated. Under these forms of hybrid governance, the article shows that interactions between state and non-state actors do not lead to collaborations for solving problems but to the persistence of sustainability problems.

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