No abstract

Dynamical changes in the ionosphere and thermosphere during geomagnetic storm times can have a significant impact on our communication and navigation applications, as well as satellite orbit determination and prediction activities. Because of the complex electrodynamics coupling processes during storms, which cannot be fully described with the sparse set of thermosphere–ionosphere (TI) observations, it is crucial to accurately model the state of the TI system. The approximation closest to the true state can be obtained by assimilating relevant measurements into physics-based models. Thermospheric mass density (TMD) derived from satellite measurements is ideal to improve the thermosphere through data assimilation. Given the coupled nature of the TI system, the changes in the thermosphere will also influence the ionosphere state. This study presents a quantification of the changes and improvement of the model state produced by assimilating TMD not only for the thermosphere density but also for the ionosphere electron density under storm conditions. TMD estimates derived from a single Swarm satellite and the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) physics-based model are used for the data assimilation. The results are presented for a case study during the St. Patricks Day storm 2015. It is shown that the TMD data assimilation generates an improvement of the model’s thermosphere density of up to 40% (measured along the orbit of the non-assimilated Swarm satellites). The model’s electron density during the course of the storm has been improved by approximately 8 and 22% relative to Swarm-A and GRACE, respectively. The comparison of the model’s global electron density against a high-quality 3D electron density model, generated through assimilation of total electron content, shows that TMD assimilation modifies the model’s ionosphere state positively and negatively during storm time. The major improvement areas are the mid-low latitudes during the storm’s recovery phase. Graphical Abstract

<p>Plasma anomalies appear at high latitudes, extending across the polar cap as a tongue of ionisation and/or polar patches. Physical mechanisms responsible for plasma uplifts and transport are investigated using global ionospheric circulation models driven by parameterised high-latitude plasma convection models. Various convection models will be considered, including the models based on satellite data, SuperDARN radar data, and data assimilation models. Relative contributions from electrodynamic plasma transport and neutral wind forcing are assessed. The simulations are compared with GNSS and radar observations. The results are discussed in the context of space weather modelling and scintillation environment modelling at high latitudes.</p>

<p>During geomagnetic storms, communication and navigation instruments can be dramatically affected by the rapid changes that occur in the upper atmosphere. The assimilation of data in physics-based models such as the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model through and ensemble Kalman filter, can improve the representation of the thermosphere-ionosphere (TI) system. Due to the coupled nature of the TI system, the ionosphere is affected by, among others, changes in the neutral atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the capability of the CTIPe model to provide better estimates of the ionosphere by improving its specification of the thermosphere via data assimilation. Here, we assimilate thermospheric mass density (TMD) observations from the Swarm mission normalized to 400 km altitude during the 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm. The changes that occur in the ionosphere due to assimilation of TMD data are measured by means of the difference between the model results with and without assimilation. To measure the improvement gained with data assimilation, we compare with independent measurements of electron density along the orbit of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, that shows a reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) by a 22% with respect to the non-assimilation run. The impact on the global scale is measured by comparing the CTIPe model results with the corresponding output of the 3D B-Spline electron density model. The results illustrate that the electron density equatorial region is the most affected region by assimilation of TMD, with an average RMSE reduction of 25% at the assimilation altitude of 400 km.</p>