Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps.Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment.

No abstract

This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products.We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users' trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria.

The paper aimed to demonstrate how the application of HEC-RAS and GIS techniques can be utilized for better results when carrying out a flood vulnerability mapping and assessment. Digital interpretation that uses HEC-RAS and GIS

This study examines the impact of climate change on hydrologic resources of selected rivers and lakes in the Sudano- Sahelian Ecological Zone of Nigeria. Climatologically data acquired were rainfall, temperature and evaporation from Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Oshodi, Lagos. Similarly, the hydrological data of river discharge and lake levels were obtained from Nigeria Hydrological Services, Kaduna. We used the Standardised Anomaly Index to test for fluctuations in rainfall, temperature, runoff and water level in lakes. Mann Kendall statistics were used to examine the trends in the climate variables. Pearman correlation was adopted to test the relationship between runoff and the rainfall variables. The findings revealed a general downward trend in rainfall amounts in the 1970s and 1980s. The findings also detected an upward trend in the amount of rainfall from 1990 to 2019. The correlation results of rainfall attributes and runoff showed significant relationships in annual rainfall (r= 0.61), annual rain-days (r=0.61), rain days of heavy rainfall (r= 0.57) and wet season rainfall (r=0.54). These attributed when combined, revealed a 51% contribution to the overall regression with (r=0.51) at 95% probability level. The study concluded that the Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zone of Nigeria experiencing an increase in the annual rainfall. The increase in rainfall point to the recovery of the rainfall from the great Sahelian drought of the 1970s and 1980s. The rise in the annual rainfall is a possible influencing factor to the frequent occurrences of flooding in recent time across the ecological zone.