ARCH and GARCH models are widely used in financial data to describe its volatility pattern. The models assume the positive and negative return residual gives the same or symmetric influence on its volatility. However, in reality, this assumption is frequently violated, which is called heteroscedasticity. Therefore, to deal with heteroscedasticity and asymmetric data, the asymmetric GARCH models, which are EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models are used. This research aims to compare the models between symmetric and asymmetric GARCH to make financial data modeling. It uses daily data on three foreign exchange rates for IDR including IDR/CNY, IDR/JPY, and IDR/USD. The data series to be used here are from January 4, 2016, to January 20, 2020. This research method is started by selecting the best mean model for each data. Based on the best mean model, then modeling the mean and variance function are simultaneously conducted using the GARCH model. To test whether there was an asymmetric effect on the data, a Lagrange multiplier test was applied on the residuals of the GARCH model. The results show that the asymmetric effect was found in the IDR/CNY and IDR/JPY exchange rates. To overcome this asymmetric effect, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH model were applied to the two exchange rates. Then the two models are compared to find out which volatility model is better. Using AIC and BIC we find EGARCH as the best model for IDR/CNY exchange rates daily return and GJR-GARCH as the best model for IDR/JPY exchange rates daily return.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.