Background In response to the challenge to rapidly identify treatment options for COVID-19, several studies reported that statins, as a drug class, reduce mortality in these patients. Here we explored the possibility that different statins might differ in their ability to exert protective effects based on computational predictions. Methods A Bayesian network tool was used to predict drugs that shift the host transcriptomic response to SARS-CoV-2 infection towards a healthy state. Drugs were predicted using 14 RNA-sequencing datasets from 72 autopsy tissues and 465 COVID-19 patient samples or from cultured human cells and organoids infected with SARS-CoV-2, with a total of 2,436 drugs investigated. Top drug predictions included statins, which were tested in Vero E6 cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 and human endothelial cells infected with a related OC43 coronavirus. A database containing over 4,000 COVID-19 patients on statins was also analyzed to determine mortality risk in patients prescribed specific statins versus untreated matched controls. Findings Simvastatin was among the most highly predicted compounds (14/14 datasets) and five other statins were predicted to be active in > 50% of analyses. In vitro testing of SARS-CoV-2 infected cells revealed simvastatin to be a potent inhibitor whereas most other statins were less effective. Simvastatin also inhibited OC43 infection and reduced cytokine production in endothelial cells. Analysis of the clinical database revealed that reduced mortality risk was only observed in COVID-19 patients prescribed a subset of statins, including simvastatin and atorvastatin. Interpretation Different statins may differ in their ability to sustain the lives of COVID-19 patients despite having a shared target and lipid-modifying mechanism of action. These findings highlight the value of target-agnostic drug prediction coupled with patient databases to identify and validate non-obvious mechanisms and drug repurposing opportunities. Funding DARPA, Wyss Institute, Hess Research Fund, UCSF Program for Breakthrough Biomedical Research, and NIH