No abstract

This paper makes an effort to evaluate the cost of negative income tax as a fiscal measure aiming to tackle the persistent high poverty rate in Macedonia. Poverty, income inequality and unemployment are expected to rise all around the world due to the pandemic corona virus outbreak and the subsequent economic crisis. Governments around the world have already implemented measures similar to universal basic income with the purpose of increasing household consumption and stimulating aggregate demand but also to mitigate the devastating effects that the recent unfavorable economic developments have on the citizens living in poverty or are at the risk of poverty. However, shrinking fiscal spaces of small economies could be an obstacle to implement such policies. Compared to universal basic income, negative income tax is a less costly policy option that targets the population living in poverty instead of providing payments to everyone regardless of their income. The analysis based on the available data is indicating that implementing such policy would cost as much as 9.7 billion MKD per year, which is 4% of the planned state budget revenues for Y2020, 8% of the planned social transfers for Y2020 and 29% of the funds that the state has made available for tackling the COVID 19 crisis so far. In addition, the negative income tax could trigger various positive effects on the economy. Since poor people spend almost all of their income, it could be expected that implementing negative income tax would rise household consumption. According to the empirical analysis in this paper, household consumption is in highest correlation to GDP growth in Macedonia compared to the other explanatory variables (government consumption, investments, import and export).

The analysis of the demographical data indicates that currently the main challenge for the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go public pension system in Macedonia is not the aging population. The revenues from contributions as a percentage of total pension system's revenues are decreasing due to low labour activity, low wages and slow job-creation. The larger deficits of the fund call for an analysis and possible reform action. The paper provides simulations under proposed assumptions until 2030. In our simulations, the pension fund starts to generate surpluses after 2025-26. They are higher or lower depending on the policy to be chosen. The sensitivity of the pension system is the highest to the GDP growth, which points to the need to find mechanisms to accelerate growth.

This paper makes an effort to test the Kuznets hypothesis in selected Balkan countries by applying panel data regression analysis for the period 2001-2012. We analyzed the following Balkan countries: 1) EU member states – Croatia, Slovenia, Greece and Bulgaria and 2) EU candidate states – North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Serbia. The results indicate the existence of the Kuznets curve that is flatter at initial stages of economic development, with income inequality declining at later stages of economic growth. In addition, the EU membership is correlated to lower income inequality, indicating better redistribution efforts in these countries compared to the EU candidate countries. Keywords: income inequality, Kuznets curve, Gini index, panel data model.