The uncertainties in heating predictions derived from ground test data correlations have been used to define the corresponding uncertainties in TPS weight for the Space Shuttle. A completely reusable Shuttle system consisting of an aluminum heat sink booster and orbiter with reusable surface insulation for thermal protection was evaluated. The largest contribution to the uncertainty in TPS weight for the orbiter occurred on lower surface areas as a result of heating and boundary-layer transition uncertainties. Extension of this work to the current Shuttle system concept showed reduced weight uncertainty for the external tank compared to the reusable booster. Nomenclature H(T), h, #(0.9TO), H = heat-transfer coefficient L m M P 4 Re ReJL Re e T V W X a 6 a t A Subscripts B C.L. e L tr * oo s Ref = model reference length (body axial length) = meter = Mach number = pressure = heating rate = Reynolds number = freestream unit Reynolds number = momentum thickness Reynolds number = temperature = velocity = TPS weight = axial distance = angle of attack = local flow deflection angle = peripheral angle = population standard deviation = time = increment in parameter prefixed = booster alone = booster mated with orbiter = lower surface centerline value -edge condition = local conditions = transition location = local peripheral value = freestream = stagnation point = reference value of h or q for a unit (R = I') sphere scaled to model size = wall condition = impingement region = undisturbed Presented as Paper 73-737 at

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