Humans strongly impact the dynamics of coastal systems, yet surprisingly few studies mechanistically link management of anthropogenic stressors and successful restoration of nearshore habitats over large spatial and temporal scales. Such examples are sorely needed to ensure the success of ecosystem restoration efforts worldwide. Here, we unite 30 consecutive years of watershed modeling, biogeochemical data, and comprehensive aerial surveys of Chesapeake Bay, United States to quantify the cascading effects of anthropogenic impacts on submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV), an ecologically and economically valuable habitat. We employ structural equation models to link land use change to higher nutrient loads, which in turn reduce SAV cover through multiple, independent pathways. We also show through our models that high biodiversity of SAV consistently promotes cover, an unexpected finding that corroborates emerging evidence from other terrestrial and marine systems. Due to sustained management actions that have reduced nitrogen concentrations in Chesapeake Bay by 23% since 1984, SAV has regained 17,000 ha to achieve its highest cover in almost half a century. Our study empirically demonstrates that nutrient reductions and biodiversity conservation are effective strategies to aid the successful recovery of degraded systems at regional scales, a finding which is highly relevant to the utility of environmental management programs worldwide.

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Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically and economically valuable component of coastal estuaries that acts as an early indicator of both degrading and improving water quality. This study aimed to determine if shoreline hardening, which is associated with increased population pressure and climate change, acts to degrade SAV habitat quality at the local scale. In situ comparisons of SAV beds adjacent to both natural and hardened shorelines in 24 subestuaries throughout the Chesapeake and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays indicated that shoreline hardening does impact adjacent SAV beds. Species diversity, evenness, and percent cover were significantly reduced in the presence of riprap revetment. A post hoc analysis also confirmed that SAV is locally affected by watershed land use associated with increased population pressure, though to a lesser degree than impacts observed from shoreline armoring. When observed over time, SAV recovery at the local level took approximately 3 to 4 years following storm impacts, and SAV adjacent to natural shorelines showed more resilience to storms than SAV adjacent to armored shorelines. The negative impacts of shoreline hardening and watershed development on SAV shown here will inform coastal zone management decisions as increasing coastal populations and sea level rise drive these practices.

Global change has converted many structurally complex and ecologically and economically valuable coastlines to bare substrate. In the structural habitats that remain, climate-tolerant and opportunistic species are increasing in response to environmental extremes and variability. The shifting of dominant foundation species identity with climate change poses a unique conservation challenge because species vary in their responses to environmental stressors and to management. Here, we combine 35 y of watershed modeling and biogeochemical water quality data with species comprehensive aerial surveys to describe causes and consequences of turnover in seagrass foundation species across 26,000 ha of habitat in the Chesapeake Bay. Repeated marine heatwaves have caused 54% retraction of the formerly dominant eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) since 1991, allowing 171% expansion of the temperature-tolerant widgeongrass ( Ruppia maritima ) that has likewise benefited from large-scale nutrient reductions. However, this phase shift in dominant seagrass identity now presents two significant shifts for management: Widgeongrass meadows are not only responsible for rapid, extensive recoveries but also for the largest crashes over the last four decades; and, while adapted to high temperatures, are much more susceptible than eelgrass to nutrient pulses driven by springtime runoff. Thus, by selecting for rapid post-disturbance recolonization but low resistance to punctuated freshwater flow disturbance, climate change could threaten the Chesapeake Bay seagrass’ ability to provide consistent fishery habitat and sustain functioning over time. We demonstrate that understanding the dynamics of the next generation of foundation species is a critical management priority, because shifts from relatively stable habitat to high interannual variability can have far-reaching consequences across marine and terrestrial ecosystems.