The Spanish Central System is a Cenozoic pop-up with an E W to NE SW orientation that affects an the crust (thick-skinned tectonics). It shows antifonn geometry in the upper crust with thickening in the lower crust. Together -with the Iberian Chain it constitutes the most prominent mmmtainous structure of the Pyrenean foreland.The evolutionary patterns concerning the paleotopography of the interior of the Peninsula can be established by an analysis of the fo11owing data: gravimetric, topographical, macro and micro tectonic, sedimentological (infilling of the sedimentary basins of the relative foreland), P T t path from apatite fission tracks, paleoseismic and instrumental seismicity.Deformation is dearly asymmetric in the Central System as evidenced by the existence of an unique, large (crustal-scale) thrust at its southern border, while in the northern one there is a normal sequence of north verging thrusts, towards the Duero Basin, whose activity ended during the Lower Miocene. This deformation was accomplished lUlder triaxial compression, Oligocene Lower Miocene in age, marked by NW SE to NNW SSE shortening. Loca11y orientations of paleostresses deviate from that of the regional tensor, follo-wing a period of relative tectonic quiescence. During the Upper Miocene Pliocene, a reactivation of constrictive stress occurred and some structures underwent rejuvenation as a consequence of the action of tectonic stresses similar to those of today (lUliaxial extension to strike slip -with NW SE shortening direction). However, the westernmost areas show continuous activity throughout the whole of the Tertiary, with no apparent pulses. At the present time there is a moderate seismic activity in the Central System related to faults that were active during the Cenozoic, with the same kinematic characteristics.
In order to reach Europe's 2020 and 2050 targets in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, geothermal resources will have to contribute substantially to meeting carbon-free energy needs. However, public opinion may prevent future large-scale application of deep geothermal power plants, because induced seismicity is often perceived as an unsolicited and uncontrollable side effect of geothermal development. In the last decade, significant advances were made in the development of models to forecast induced seismicity, which are either based on catalogues of induced seismicity, on the underlying physical processes, or on a hybrid philosophy. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the existing approaches applied to geothermal contexts. This overview will outline the advantages and drawbacks of the different approaches, identify the gaps in our understanding, and describe the needs for geothermal observations. Most of the forecasting approaches focus on the stimulation phase of enhanced geothermal systems which are most prone to generate seismic events. Besides the statistical models suited for realtime applications during reservoir stimulation, the physics-based models have the advantage of considering subsurface characteristics and estimating the impact of fluid circulation on the reservoir. Hence, to mitigate induced seismicity during major hydraulic stimulations, application of hybrid methods in a decision support system seems the best available solution. So far, however, little attention has been paid to geochemical effects on the failure process and to production periods. Quantitative modelling of induced seismicity still is a challenging and complex matter. Appropriate resources remain to be invested for the scientific community to continue its research and development efforts to successfully forecast induced seismicity in geothermal fields. This is a prerequisite for making this renewable energy resource sustainable and accessible worldwide.
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