Identifying when past exposure to an infectious disease will protect against newly emerging strains is central to understanding the spread and the severity of epidemics, but the prediction of viral cross-protection remains an important unsolved problem. For foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) research in particular, improved methods for predicting this cross-protection are critical for predicting the severity of outbreaks within endemic settings where multiple serotypes and subtypes commonly co-circulate, as well as for deciding whether appropriate vaccine(s) exist and how much they could mitigate the effects of any outbreak. To identify antigenic relationships and their predictors, we used linear mixed effects models to account for variation in pairwise cross-neutralization titres using only viral sequences and structural data. We identified those substitutions in surface-exposed structural proteins that are correlates of loss of cross-reactivity. These allowed prediction of both the best vaccine match for any single virus and the breadth of coverage of new vaccine candidates from their capsid sequences as effectively as or better than serology. Sub-sequences chosen by the model-building process all contained sites that are known epitopes on other serotypes. Furthermore, for the SAT1 serotype, for which epitopes have never previously been identified, we provide strong evidence – by controlling for phylogenetic structure – for the presence of three epitopes across a panel of viruses and quantify the relative significance of some individual residues in determining cross-neutralization. Identifying and quantifying the importance of sites that predict viral strain cross-reactivity not just for single viruses but across entire serotypes can help in the design of vaccines with better targeting and broader coverage. These techniques can be generalized to any infectious agents where cross-reactivity assays have been carried out. As the parameterization uses pre-existing datasets, this approach quickly and cheaply increases both our understanding of antigenic relationships and our power to control disease.

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Transmission of a plaque-purified SAT-2 foot-andmouth disease virus (FMDV) occurred erratically from artificially infected African buffaloes in captivity to susceptible buffaloes and cattle in the same enclosure; in some instances transmission occurred only after contact between persistently infected carriers and susceptible animals lasting a number of months. Because the rate at which FMDV mutations accumulated in persistently infected buffaloes was approximately linear (1.64% nucleotide substitutions per year over the region of the 1D gene sequenced), both buffaloes and cattle that became infected some months after the start of the experiment were infected with viruses that differed from the original clone. The nucleotide differences were reflected in significant antigenic change. A SAT-1 FMDV from a separate experiment inadvertently infected some of the buffalo in the SAT-2 experiment. The SAT-1 FMDV also accumulated mutations at a constant rate in individual buffaloes (1.54% nucleotide changes per year) but the resultant antigenic variation was less than for SAT-2. It is concluded that persistently infected buffaloes in the wild constantly generate variants of SAT-1 and SAT-2 which explains the wide range of genomic and antigenic variants which occur in SAT-1 and SAT-2 viruses in southern Africa.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outer capsid proteins 1B, 1C and 1D contribute to the virus serotype distribution and antigenic variants that exist within each of the seven serotypes. This study presents phylogenetic, genetic and antigenic analyses of South African Territories (SAT) serotypes prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we show that the high levels of genetic diversity in the P1-coding region within the SAT serotypes are reflected in the antigenic properties of these viruses and therefore have implications for the selection of vaccine strains that would provide the best vaccine match against emerging viruses. Interestingly, although SAT1 and SAT2 viruses displayed similar genetic variation within each serotype (32 % variable amino acids), antigenic disparity, as measured by r 1 -values, was less pronounced for SAT1 viruses compared with SAT2 viruses within our dataset, emphasizing the high antigenic variation within the SAT2 serotype. Furthermore, we combined amino acid variation and the r 1 -values with crystallographic structural data and were able to predict areas on the surface of the FMD virion as antigenically relevant. These sites were mostly consistent with antigenic sites previously determined for types A, O and C using mAbs and escape mutant studies. Our methodology offers a quick alternative to determine antigenic relevant sites for FMDV field strains.

Quantifying and predicting the antigenic characteristics of a virus is something of a holy grail for infectious disease research because of its central importance to the emergence of new strains, the severity of outbreaks, and vaccine selection. However, these characteristics are defined by a complex interplay of viral and host factors so that phylogenetic measures of viral similarity are often poorly correlated to antigenic relationships. Here, we generate antigenic phylogenies that track the phenotypic evolution of two serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus by combining host serology and viral sequence data to identify sites that are critical to their antigenic evolution. For serotype SAT1, we validate our antigenic phylogeny against monoclonal antibody escape mutants, which match all of the predicted antigenic sites. For serotype O, we validate it against known sites where available, and otherwise directly evaluate the impact on antigenic phenotype of substitutions in predicted sites using reverse genetics and serology. We also highlight a critical and poorly understood problem for vaccine selection by revealing qualitative differences between assays that are often used interchangeably to determine antigenic match between field viruses and vaccine strains. Our approach provides a tool to identify naturally occurring antigenic substitutions, allowing us to track the genetic diversification and associated antigenic evolution of the virus. Despite the hugely important role vaccines have played in enhancing human and animal health, vaccinology remains a conspicuously empirical science. This study advances the field by providing guidance for tuning vaccine strains via site-directed mutagenesis through this high-resolution tracking of antigenic evolution of the virus between rare major shifts in phenotype.