The development of progressive failure in slopes is a poorly understood process, and relatively few advances in terms of the mechanics of the development of failure have been made since 1967. However, advances in the understanding of the development of fractures in brittle materials provide new insights into landslide mechanics. In addition, the link between the deformation mechanism and movement type allows interpretation of displacement records to determine the mechanisms acting within a slope. This paper utilizes these insights into deformation processes, combined with “reinflation” stress-path triaxial experiments, to propose a new model for the development of a progressive, first-time failure within a slope. This model is able to explain the development of failure when the factor of safety is greater than unity, the existence of “Saito” linearity (a linear trend when the reciprocal of velocity prior to failure is plotted against time) during tertiary creep, and the development of failures during periods of apparently increasing normal effective stress

The MW7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake generated more than 10000 landslides over a total area of about 10000 km2, with the majority concentrated in a smaller area of about 3600 km2. The largest landslide triggered by the earthquake had an approximate volume of 20 (±2) M m3, with a runout distance of about 2.7 km, forming a dam on the Hapuku River. In this paper, we present version 1.0 of the landslide inventory we have created for this event. We use the inventory presented in this paper to identify and discuss some of the controls on the spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Our main findings are: 1) the number of medium to large landslides (source area 10000 m2) triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake is smaller than for similar sized landslides triggered by similar magnitude earthquakes in New Zealand; 2) seven of the largest eight landslides (from 5 to 20 x 106 m3) occurred on faults that ruptured to the surface during the earthquake; 3) the average landslide density within 200 m of a mapped surface fault rupture is three times that at a distance of 2500 m or more from a mapped surface fault rupture ; 4) the "distance to fault" predictor variable, when used as a proxy for ground-motion intensity, and when combined with slope angle, geology and elevation variables, has more power in predicting landslide probability than the PGA or PGV variables typically adopted for modelling; and 5) for the same slope angles, the coastal slopes have landslide point densities that are an order of magnitude greater than those in similar materials on the inland slopes, but their source areas are significantly smaller.

Abstract. Although slow-moving landslides represent a substantial hazard, their detailed mechanisms are still comparatively poorly understood. We have conducted a suite of innovative laboratory experiments using novel equipment to simulate a range of porewater pressure and dynamic stress scenarios on samples collected from a slow-moving landslide complex in New Zealand. We have sought to understand how changes in porewater pressure and ground acceleration during earthquakes influence the movement patterns of slow-moving landslides. Our experiments show that during periods of elevated porewater pressure, displacement rates are influenced by two components: first an absolute stress state component (normal effective stress state) and second a transient stress state component (the rate of change of normal effective stress). During dynamic shear cycles, displacement rates are controlled by the extent to which the forces operating at the shear surface exceed the stress state at the yield acceleration point. The results indicate that during strong earthquake accelerations, strain will increase rapidly with relatively minor increases in the out-of-balance forces. Similar behaviour is seen for the generation of movement through increased porewater pressures. Our results show how the mechanisms of shear zone deformation control the movement patterns of large slow-moving translational landslides, and how they may be mobilised by strong earthquakes and significant rain events.

The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand exposed loess-mantled slopes in the area to very high levels of seismic excitation (locally measured as >2 g). Few loess slopes showed permanent local downslope deformation, and most of these showed only limited accumulated displacement. A series of innovative dynamic back pressured shear-box tests were undertaken on intact and remoulded loess samples collected from one of the recently active slopes replicating field conditions under different simplified horizontal seismic excitations. During each test, the strength reduction and excess pore water pressures generated were measured as the sample failed. Test results suggest that although dynamic liquefaction could have occurred, a key factor was likely to have been that the loess was largely unsaturated at the times of the large earthquake events. The failure of intact loess samples in the tests was complex and variable due to the highly variable geotechnical characteristics of the material. Some loess samples failed rapidly as a result of dynamic liquefaction as seismic excitation generated an increase in pore-water pressure, triggering rapid loss of strength and thus of shear resistance. Following initial failure, pore pressure dissipated with continued seismic excitation and the sample consolidated, resulting in partial shear-strength recovery. Once excess pore-water pressures had dissipated, deformation continued in a critical effective stress state with no further change in volume. Remoulded and weaker samples, however, did not liquefy, and instead immediately reduced in volume with an accompanying slower and more sustained increase in pore pressure as the sample consolidated. Thereafter excess pressures dissipated and deformation continued at a critical state. The complex behaviour explained why, despite exceptionally strong ground shaking, there was only limited displacement and lack of run-out: dynamic liquefaction was unlikely to occur in the freely draining slopes. Dynamic liquefaction however remained a plausible mechanism to explain loess failure in some of the low-angle toe slopes, where a permanent water table was present in the loess

Tens of thousands of landslides were generated over 10,000 km2 of North Canterbury and Marlborough as a consequence of the 14 November 2016, Mw7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake. The most intense landslide damage was concentrated in 3500 km2 around the areas of fault rupture. Given the sparsely populated area affected by landslides, only a few homes were impacted and there were no recorded deaths due to landslides. Landslides caused major disruption with all road and rail links with Kaikōura being severed. The landslides affecting State Highway 1 (the main road link in the South Island of New Zealand) and the South Island main trunk railway extended from Ward in Marlborough all the way to the south of Oaro in North Canterbury. The majority of landslides occurred in two geological and geotechnically distinct materials reflective of the dominant rock types in the affected area. In the Neogene sedimentary rocks (sandstones, limestones and siltstones) of the Hurunui District, North Canterbury and around Cape Campbell in Marlborough, first-time and reactivated rock-slides and rock-block slides were the dominant landslide type. These rocks also tend to have rock material strength values in the range of 5-20 MPa. In the Torlesse ‘basement’ rocks (greywacke sandstones and argillite) of the Kaikōura Ranges, first-time rock and debris avalanches were the dominant landslide type. These rocks tend to have material strength values in the range of 20-50 MPa. A feature of this earthquake is the large number (more than 200) of valley blocking landslides it generated. This was partly due to the steep and confined slopes in the area and the widely distributed strong ground shaking. The largest landslide dam has an approximate volume of 12(±2) M m3 and the debris from this travelled about 2.7 km2 downslope where it formed a dam blocking the Hapuku River. The long-term stability of cracked slopes and landslide dams from future strong earthquakes and large rainstorms are an ongoing concern to central and local government agencies responsible for rebuilding homes and infrastructure. A particular concern is the potential for debris floods to affect downstream assets and infrastructure should some of the landslide dams breach catastrophically. At least twenty-one faults ruptured to the ground surface or sea floor, with these surface ruptures extending from the Emu Plain in North Canterbury to offshore of Cape Campbell in Marlborough. The mapped landslide distribution reflects the complexity of the earthquake rupture. Landslides are distributed across a broad area of intense ground shaking reflective of the elongate area affected by fault rupture, and are not clustered around the earthquake epicentre. The largest landslides triggered by the earthquake are located either on or adjacent to faults that ruptured to the ground surface. Surface faults may provide a plane of weakness or hydrological discontinuity and adversely oriented surface faults may be indicative of the location of future large landslides. Their location appears to have a strong structural geological control. Initial results from our landslide investigations suggest predictive models relying only on ground-shaking estimates underestimate the number and size of the largest landslides that occurred.