The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications. (2nd edition.) By Norman T. J. Bailey. London and High Wycombe, Griffin, 1975. xvi, 413 p. 9·5 cm. £14·00.

An approximate expression is found for the probability density of the recurrence time between major outbreaks of a host-vector disease such as yellow fever, in which the infectious period of a host is short and the lifetime of a vector is short compared with that of a host. The typical interval between epidemics based on the modal value of this distribution is obtained. These results are the analogues of those obtained by Bartlett (1956), (1966) for the periodicity of measles epidemics in small communities.

Certain exact tests were developed by Williams (1952) to deal with the goodness of fit of a single hypothetical discriminant function. Bartlett (1951) generalized these results by the use of the geometric method to any number of dependent and independent variables. Bartlett's paper is divided into two parts. The first deals with an approximate factorization of the residual likelihood criterion into an effect due to the difference between the hypothetical and sample functions, and an effect due to non-collinearity. A method is given for constructing confidence intervals from the first factor. The second part of the paper gives two possible exact factorizations of the likelihood criterion, expressing the results in terms of the sample canonical variables. Kshirsagar (1964a) has expressed these results in terms of the original variables and given an analytic proof of the distribution of the factors. Williams (1955, 1961) has outlined a generalization of these results to several discriminant functions and given the result for one of the possible factorizations.

A model has been formulated in to describe the spatial spread of an epidemic involving n types of individuals, when triggered by the introduction of infectives from outside. Wave solutions for such a model have been investigated in and have been shown only to exist at certain speeds. This paper establishes that the asymptotic speed of propagation, as defined in Aronson and Weinberger, of such an epidemic is in fact c0, the minimum speed at which wave solutions exist. This extends the known result for the one-type and host-vector epidemics.

No abstract