When radar was first introduced to the merchant fleets of the world, many people felt that a practical solution to the collision avoidance problem had been found. However, a review of worldwide collision statistics of the past 20 years indicates that, in spite of the expanded use of radar, the over-all collision rate remains alarmingly high. Because of radar's less than perfect record for preventing ship collisions, development of various types of collision avoidance systems has taken place. The implied promise in this development is that the computer-aided radar will provide a lasting answer to the collision avoidance problem.

This paper takes a mathematical analysis technique derived from the Interrogator's Fallacy (in a legal context), expands upon it to identify a set of three interrelated probabilistic tools with wide applicability, and demonstrates their ability to assess hypothesis-evidence relationships associated with important problems.